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Topic: Local press is already turning sour toward the Landlubbers (Read 1831 times) previous topic - next topic

Local press is already turning sour toward the Landlubbers

We are only 19 games into the season but fans are starting to get antsy with these feelings of Deja vu. The team is off to a sub .500 start just like last year despite what everyone considered an improved team for the short term. We may not be able to rely on the frenzy the Landlubbers put us in late last year winning 50 of the last 69 games. Even if they do however, the fear is that these slow starts are foreshadowing the first round playoff exits. Maybe this young (sim years) manager is missing something. Maybe his dependence on analytics isn't all it is cracked up to be. It's the same questions we ask every year.

Pitching is where we see the most disappointment in this young season. Only 2 of 12 pitchers are beating their expected (Real Life) ERAs while  our division rival Kraken have only 2 of 11 that are not beating their expected ERAs. We can only hope these pitchers turn it around before we lose valuable bats like Matt Olson (A Witch told me he has limited at bats this year). 
Craig
Ann Arbor Landlubbers

Re: Local press is already turning sour toward the Landlubbers

Reply #1 –
If you're selling..I'm buying.   :D
Dan
Brooklyn Kraken

Re: Local press is already turning sour toward the Landlubbers

Reply #2 –
I feel your pain Chris.  The Nomads are a game over .500 but their run differential is in the negative.  The offense has struggled, the bullpen has struggled and with a few exceptions the rotation hasn't lived up to expectations. 

Similar to you only 2 of 11 pitchers are performing better than expected with the vast majority WAY off their real life statistics.  I've allowed the third most runs and hovered around the middle for run production.  I expected a World Series contender, but I'm starting to wonder.

Consider me frustrated!!!
Matt
Mother Lode Argonauts

Re: Local press is already turning sour toward the Landlubbers

Reply #3 –
boat feels less lonely now, thanks...... I'm over here calculating the probability of this start ;)
Craig
Ann Arbor Landlubbers

Re: Local press is already turning sour toward the Landlubbers

Reply #4 –
Quote from: thebuland – on
I feel your pain Chris.  The Nomads are a game over .500 but their run differential is in the negative.

Imagine how the Miners feel!  Run differential is 2 runs positive and we're 9-12.
David
Phoenix Miners

Re: Local press is already turning sour toward the Landlubbers

Reply #5 –
I wish DMB had an export function so I could easily calculate the probabilities for all teams. Using 40 simulations, current MPs, and a "normal" distribution (surprised it followed one). I had a 6% chance of 11 wins or fewer, 6% chance of 97 runs against or more, and 70% chance of 117 runs for or fewer. Offense great, Defense almost significantly unlikely.
Craig
Ann Arbor Landlubbers

Re: Local press is already turning sour toward the Landlubbers

Reply #6 –
correction, the html export is serviceable, I'll see what I can do.
Craig
Ann Arbor Landlubbers

Re: Local press is already turning sour toward the Landlubbers

Reply #7 –
I should have waited 1 more day and I would have had 3 more games. Here is the misery index calculated for everyone from a new 40 simulations (I didn't have everyone else's data for the first 40 mentioned). I have some ideas of how to keep this up although a lot of thought has to go into the MP changes and such throughout the year.

The probabilities for everyone can be found here:
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/e/2PACX-1vTi8oSSxh7bnKRIVllt19hNKYc9BAxUsyTQSVcy77hyoZTZVheUjT--qJk4Lf37dmCEmCB4pwwSSY4l/pubhtml

The probability is the probability of the number you got or worse.
Craig
Ann Arbor Landlubbers