Prospect Snapshot: TINSTAAPP Does Not Apply

August 22, 2018, 11:22:08 AM

TINSTAAPP Does Not Apply
by Renton Brews

TINSTAAPP . . . There Is No Such Thing As A Pitching Prospect . . . has become an axiom in baseball over the years due to the significant attrition rate of young pitchers. For every first round Stephen Strasburg there are a multitude of Brien Taylor’s or Mark Appel’s or Bryan Bullington’s or Paul Wilson’s or . . . well, you get the picture. Pitching prospects (or should we say suspects…) are historically more about the development system behind them in professional ball than they are the ability they initially bring when drafted or signed.

And then there’s Casey Mize. A pitcher actually worthy of the pitching prospect label, Mize has virtually everything a franchise looks for in a pitcher. Quality stuff? Mize has it. Intelligence? Yup. Durability and production? In spades. Let’s take a closer look at the top rated pitcher in this year’s draft.

Mize joins the professional ranks with four quality pitches, starting with a fastball that sits 93-95 and peaking at 97 with excellent movement. Often superior movement saps a pitchers command of a pitch, but that is not the case with Mize, who is able to locate the plus fastball to all four quadrants of the zone. With the velocity and command he has of the fastball, it is almost unfair how good his secondary stuff is. Mize’s breaking ball has been called everything from a curve to a slider to a slurve, but no matter what it’s called, it is a plus pitch that has excellent break that Mize can locate within the zone or bury out of the zone as a chase pitch. This past spring Mize added a cutter to his repertoire that he now uses very prominently. The pitch may be new to his arsenal, but it looks as if he has been throwing it for years and is already labeled a plus offering. Adding a fourth pitch to that repertoire would be impressive enough, but Mize’s fourth pitch is probably his best. Developed while in college to replace the below average changeup he threw previously, Mize now uses a splitter in all change up counts. The pitch is said by many to be the best single pitch in this years draft class. Mize also shows superior control and command of all four of his pitches, able to locate them with pin point accuracy and making his entire repertoire play up even more.

Mize is not only a thrower with excellent stuff, he is a cerebral pitcher with exceptional mound presence and a bulldog attitude. Coming out of high school as a pitcher with a decent fastball, an inconsistent breaking pitch and a below average change of pace, Mize developed himself into one of the most polished and dominant college arms ever available in the draft. The development of the splitter early in his college career gave Mize a second quality offering, but Mize didn’t stop there. He has tightened his breaking pitch and is now able to manipulate it to break in multiple planes. This past season he developed the cutter to alleviate some of the reliance on his splitter. On the mound, Mize never gives in. His focus and drive have been praised by coaches and analysts alike throughout his college career.

Mize’s durability was questioned early in his college days after his development and reliance on the splitter. The pitch has been known to shred elbows and when Mize missed time during his sophomore year with forearm tightness, the concerns seemed to be well founded. Mize bounced back well though and now with the cutter as his primary secondary offering and a full healthy season at Auburn this past season, Mize has proven fully healthy and capable of a heavy starters workload. Mize also has ideal size at 6’3” and 210 pounds and easy, repeatable mechanics, lessening the durability concerns even more.

The dominant stuff, unquestioned work ethic, superior mound presence, and easy repeatable mechanics would make Mize a top pick alone, but his ability to meld all that into a dominant performance on the mound is what pushed him to almost transcendent levels. This past season at Auburn, Mize posted a 10-6 record with a 3.30 ERA in the SEC, but it is some of his secondary numbers that defy belief. In 114 innings, Mize struck out 156 batters and walked just 16. Those numbers calculate to 12.3 K/9 and a Kershaw-esque 9.8 K/BB. He held opposing batters to a .174 average and allowed just a .201 on-base percentage and a 0.87 WHIP. Helping further alleviate the durability concerns, he averaged just under seven innings per start. In any conference those would be excellent numbers. In the SEC, widely acknowledged as the toughest baseball conference in the country, they are downright dominant.

Put this all together and it is easy to see why the Chicago Rum Runners and GM Brent Brown made Mize the #2 pick in this years draft. Brown commented, “Mize is special. He has shown elite control the past two seasons at Auburn. As an organization, Chicago feels that he will move quickly through the minor league system and be able to help the Run Runners soon.” There is really nothing in the analysis or production that would put that opinion in question either. Even as a starting pitcher, a position that typically takes longer to develop, Mize quite easily could be the first 2018 draftee to debut in the bigs.

Pitching prospects are a volatile bunch, but Casey Mize is poised to be volatile in a whole different way . . . Following in the footsteps previously established during his college career, he’s about to blow up all established norms held before him.

Re: Prospect Snapshot: TINSTAAPP Does Not Apply

Reply #1 – August 22, 2018, 04:21:20 PM

Nice write up. As a Tiger fan, I might trade an arm and a leg for him.

Re: Prospect Snapshot: TINSTAAPP Does Not Apply

Reply #2 – August 30, 2018, 04:27:55 PM

So he never throws the changeup?

Re: Prospect Snapshot: TINSTAAPP Does Not Apply

Reply #3 – August 31, 2018, 10:15:35 AM

Nope. Evidently he had a very fringy changeup in high school that would not have even been usable as a show-me pitch in the college ranks. His freshman year they changed the grip of the pitch to more of a split finger grip and voila . . . a 70 grade, plus-plus pitch was born! It is his change up. In fact he calls the pitch a split-changeup.