Skip to main content ↑ ↓
Topic: Kinsler vs. Dozier/Kipnis (Read 8159 times) previous topic - next topic

Kinsler vs. Dozier/Kipnis

Hey guys,

Just a question on how you all evaluate players in MSB, particularly.  I'm curious about the perceived value for the 3 2Bmen that were available in Week 3, Kinsler, Kipnis, and Dozier. 

Kinsler just signed for $4.25M, and in another league I'm in, I signed him for a measly $3.5M (for the most part, players tend to sign for very similar values year in and year out in MSB and this other league [SCRUBS]).  I outbid the next bidder by $3M when Kinsler was first posted, and nobody bid me up. 

Yet, Kipnis (about to close, perhaps, for $7M) and Dozier ($8.25M) are perceived to be of MUCH higher value than Kinsler. 

In my opinion, Kinsler is worth more than Kipnis, straight up, even considering the age factor (Kinsler is 34, Kipnis, 30).  Yes, Dozier has 13 more homers than Kinsler, so I can see him being worth maybe 10-15% more, but when you take into account his FR defense (Kinsler is EX), I don't see the 200% hike. 

My question is this: with all 3 available in the same week, I expected all 3 to go for around the same amount.  Yet Kinsler closed tonight, at a strikingly lower number compared to the other two.

I'd love to discuss this.  Tell me what I'm missing, because I think the Bombers just scored the best signing of Free Agency, to date.
Kyle - 2008, 2015, 2019 MSB Champion

Re: Kinsler vs. Dozier/Kipnis

Reply #1 –
It has to be age related and if we are fantasy players, we think about those numbers and less about defense. You point out defense and that is a great point.

A GM might also consider his park factor and lineup needs. Maybe Dozier fits as a DH and platoon partner at 2B. His defense is only a liability part of the time, I would say less than a quarter in this scenario.
Brent A. Brown
Chicago Rum Runners
President of Baseball Operations

World Series Champions
CJWL - 2017 (Grinders)

LCS
NABL-AL 2018 (Louisville Bats)

Re: Kinsler vs. Dozier/Kipnis

Reply #2 –
This reminds me of a scene from the Last Waltz.  If you haven't seen it it's the Band's goodbye concert and they bring out the best artists of those times.  It's amazing and has to be one of the best music documentaries ever made.

Anyways, with in the doc one of the Band members (Levon Helm) starts talking about New York.  He calls it an "adult portion" and goes on about it kicking the band members butts but they keep coming back and it gets better and better.  Another member (Rick Danko) starts talking about the women.  The original guy talking about New York sort of leans back as if trying to escape the camera and says "I didn't think we were supposed to talk about that".

I probably lose the point in that poor recollection of that story but what I am trying to say is I always get a little funny in talking too much about how I see players.  It ain't proprietary information by any stretch, but I tend to like to keep it close to vest.  Especially when I still have skin in the game and in this case I am still involved with the only one of the 3 to not sign.

So I probably will share a little once things get finalized but for now I will just leave you with that funny story and encourage you to watch the real thing cause I do that story no justice and I didn't even mention the best line of the story which comes from Richard Manuel.  Check it out!
Matt
Mother Lode Argonauts

Re: Kinsler vs. Dozier/Kipnis

Reply #3 –
Quote from: FRANNY77 – on
It has to be age related and if we are fantasy players, we think about those numbers and less about defense. You point out defense and that is a great point.

A GM might also consider his park factor and lineup needs. Maybe Dozier fits as a DH and platoon partner at 2B. His defense is only a liability part of the time, I would say less than a quarter in this scenario.
True.  Didn't think about the park factor, for those who have chosen parks other than close-to-neutral for strategic purposes.

On the defense topic, I think defense up the middle (C, 2B, SS, CF) are the most crucial pieces to a team's D.  So having a guy like Kinsler, who can mash, get on base, and play EX defense at a key position... that's high value in my book.
Kyle - 2008, 2015, 2019 MSB Champion

Re: Kinsler vs. Dozier/Kipnis

Reply #4 –
Quote from: thebuland – on
This reminds me of a scene from the Last Waltz.  If you haven't seen it it's the Band's goodbye concert and they bring out the best artists of those times.  It's amazing and has to be one of the best music documentaries ever made.

Anyways, withing the doc one of the Band members (Levon Helm) starts talking about New York.  He calls it an "adult portion" and goes on about it kicking the band members butts but they keep coming back and it gets better and better.  Another member (Rick Danko) starts talking about the women.  The original guy talking about New York sort of leans back as if trying to escape the camera and says "I didn't think we were supposed to talk about that".

I probably lose the point in that poor recollection of that story but what I am trying to say is I always get a little funny in talking too much about how I see players.  It ain't proprietary information by any stretch, but I tend to like to keep it close to vest.  Especially when I still have skin in the game and in this case I am still involved with the only one of the 4 to not sign.

So I probably will share a little once things get finalized but for now I will just leave you with that funny story and encourage you to watch the real thing cause I do that story no justice and I didn't even mention the best line of the story which comes from Richard Manuel.  Check it out!
Totally understand, Matt.  And that's hilarious - sounds like my kind of documentary to watch.
Kyle - 2008, 2015, 2019 MSB Champion

Re: Kinsler vs. Dozier/Kipnis

Reply #5 –
I am kinda kicking myself right now... I went with the Andrus trade and brought Diaz ,to move one of them to 2B, figuring all three 2B would be $7-$9M range. Didn't want to spend that much on 2B or get caught in a bidding war cause need to spend money other places.
Brian
Motor City Madmen

Re: Kinsler vs. Dozier/Kipnis

Reply #6 –
Quote from: monsooner – on
I'd love to discuss this.  Tell me what I'm missing, because I think the Bombers just scored the best signing of Free Agency, to date.

Well thank you.  That said, given that I've bid Longoria up to $6.5M and he's heading into silent auction, I view Chris' signing of Todd Frazier for $3M in the same light.
David
Phoenix Miners

Re: Kinsler vs. Dozier/Kipnis

Reply #7 –
The Kinsler signing is crazy to me! I had wrote off re-signing him and made other plans but couldn't help but bid a few times because he is way better than what I have (and what almost anyone has). Ultimately he is not in my division so I let him go and kept on course.
However, if I knew at the beginning of FA what I know now I would have done things differently. It's my first FA though and there is always a lot to learn about a league and its tendencies. So far I have to conclude that few people value 2B or 3B but I am sure it changes from year to year.
The players union needs to stand up for batters though. Pitchers are running the show!
Craig
Ann Arbor Landlubbers

Re: Kinsler vs. Dozier/Kipnis

Reply #8 –
I'm with Matt on this.  While I doubt I'm ahead of any GM (in fact I'm pretty sure I'm behind) in regards to valuing players I've struggled with how much to ask versus how much to share with regards to specific.

That said,  Kinsler is what 35? vs. Kipnis and Dozier are 29.  That alone is enough for me to bid 50% less on a player unless they are a slugger/dh type. 
Darrell
River City Cutthroats

Re: Kinsler vs. Dozier/Kipnis

Reply #9 –
I'm with Brian and Dan.  And Dan, it's my 10th season in MSB, and I still haven't consistently or accurately figured out player values from year to year!

Before Free Agency this year, I took a look at the 2Bmen available and decided they'd all go above Ben Zobrist, for whom I traded for $6.5M.  Had I known Kinsler could be had for $4.5M (perhaps, who knows how far David was willing to go?), I'd have stood pat.  The silver lining, of course, is that Zobrist is a 2017, so I get that $6.5M back right quick.  In fact, I've got nearly $40M coming off the books in 2017 contract at the end of the year, so I'm not complaining too badly.  :)
Kyle - 2008, 2015, 2019 MSB Champion

Re: Kinsler vs. Dozier/Kipnis

Reply #10 –
Quote from: dgonser – on
I'm with Matt on this.  While I doubt I'm ahead of any GM (in fact I'm pretty sure I'm behind) in regards to valuing players I've struggled with how much to ask versus how much to share with regards to specific.

That said,  Kinsler is what 35? vs. Kipnis and Dozier are 29.  That alone is enough for me to bid 50% less on a player unless they are a slugger/dh type. 
I fully understand, and am not hoping GMs share any secrets regarding player evaluation.  Just thought the value discrepancy was curious with the numbers so similar.

Kinsler turns 35 in late June.  He's signed through this season with a very team-friendly option for 2018.  He'll start 2018 at still just 36 years old.  So for 3 years, I personally didn't see the age difference being a factor with the other two being a bit less consistent year to year so far.  Then again, I tend to sign older players.  In fact, I wonder - over the years - how many times I've had the oldest (average age) roster in MSB.  So there's that.

Oh, and Kipnis and Dozier are closer to 30, actually.  They're only 4.5 years younger, not 6.
Kyle - 2008, 2015, 2019 MSB Champion

Re: Kinsler vs. Dozier/Kipnis

Reply #11 –
I had the order as Carpenter, Dozier, Kipnis and Kinsler.  All have good qualities and I would have been fine with any of them but I had my preferences.  Dozier and Kipnis were close in my book and I am a believer that Dozier is on the upswing.  I probably easily could flip them when I thinking of my teams needs.

Kinsler had a power surge this year but if you look at his numbers over the past few years I read them as declining power.  I don't know what this year means but seeing as he is 34 I'm more inclined to believe it's an aberration.  He plays excellent defense and that is a huge plus. He's 34.

Dozier has the most power of the group and I tend to see more of an upwards trend for him.  I definitely think 42 homers was a ridiculous aberration but I think he is a player that will fit well near the middle of a lineup for the next few years.  I was shocked by his defensive listing.  I anticipated him being at least average from all that I had read.  Note: as a Dodger fan I did my homework and honestly I wasn't thrilled with what I thought it would cost to trade for him.  I don't think he has a great hit tool.  I don't care about average that much but it impacts how often he gets on base.  His obp is decent but not good enough to make up for the poor batting average in my eyes. However his year was so good I had to put him at second.  He's 29.

When looking at the last 4-5 years Kipnis has the most years above .800 OPS of the group.  That comes more from obp more than slugging.  This year he seemed to try for more power and it hurt him but he still managed an ops over .800.  His splits are wildly inconsistent which makes me nervous when planning a roster that requires thinking a year or two ahead.  His defense improved greatly this year though I am not sure that will hold.  He's 29.

So that's the players.  Then I look at my team needs.  I was hoping for a lefty who could help balance my lineup.  I wasn't concerned about power as much as finding a guy who could fit a little more at the top of my lineup.  While this may sound like revisionist history (after signing Kipnis this morning) I starting thinking a bit about Free Agency in August/September and Kipnis was a player I liked who I thought was signable.  Some of that probably had to do with the fact I did not expect to have the money to acquire Carpenter or Dozier. 

Park factors some for me but because I have found those factors can swing from year to year I don't put a lot of stock in it.  But I did think that this year lefty power is down in Target Field and Kipnis would have been nice as power isn't usually his game.  I also thought Carpenter had such a nice obp that he would been fine and then Kinsler and Dozier come for the right which would have played to my parks ratings.

The hitting market was cheaper than I expected probably due to focusing so much of the abundance and quality of pitching.  So I took at shot on Carpenter and Dozier because I thought they were bargains.  Maybe not in Free Agency this year but in value overall.

That's my two cents.  Show's a super basic look at how my brains works in evaluating players.  Very happy to get Kipnis at a price which was lower than I would have expected when I started planning for free agency and I think the price will prove to be a good deal in subsequent years.  Of course at the price Kinsler went for that is quite a bargain although I think there were some even better deals.
Matt
Mother Lode Argonauts

Re: Kinsler vs. Dozier/Kipnis

Reply #12 –
We could be having the same conversation about pitchers.  Jason stole Colon and Kennedy if we're just looking at their 2016 performance in relation to what other 2016 performances cost.  But I guess this depends what metric you're using to measure their 2016 performance and whether or not that metric has ANY bearing to DMB.
Darrell
River City Cutthroats

Re: Kinsler vs. Dozier/Kipnis

Reply #13 –
Save for Altuve, Donaldson and a bit of a surprise with Belt, I think offensive prices are down across the board, as pitching, well, yeah, you see what pitching has become – especially front line pitching and relief. Relief, save for a few guys, is the most volatile year-over-year, and the price for it has really jumped.

I do think Kinsler was a steal. However, there are some things to note. For starters the EX is not just a single defensive rating, you need to factor in the error rating as well. The EX is his range with a couple other things mixed in as well. You can have EX or VG range, but have a higher than normal error rating. I had Bryce Harper last year with a VG range factor and a north of 150 error rating. Meaning he will get to a lot more balls than others, but will make more than the average amount of errors while getting to them. I don’t have the DMB rating in front of me, but I believe Kinsler is going to do well in that area as well - he has always been a pretty good defender, and it has improved as he has gotten older.

How I would rate them?

Offensively:
Carpenter
Kipnis
Kinsler
Dozier

Defensively:
Kinsler
Kipnis
Dozier
Carpenter

Overall:
Kipnis
Kinsler
Carpenter
Dozier

Some surface level opinion/analysis:
If you squint a bit, how much different is Dozier than Dan Uggla at the same age? Twins needed to move him this off-season, I think they will regret that they didn’t. Love Carpenter’s offense, his surge in power, his ability to get on base, that he bats lefty, but he is the worst defender of the bunch and might just end up at 1B going forward – I don’t want to pay to find out. If I knew he would have 2B qualification for the length of his contract, I may rethink this a bit. Kinsler is the best defender of the group and has aged very well. He is 5 years (4yr 10 mon) older than Kipnis, but his power surge last year was an outlier and just came off 4 straight years with an OPS under .800 OPS prior to this one. Still a good offensive player, but not what he was last year. I think Kipnis provides the best balance of the group. He is a good defender, carries a great OBP year to year, has enough power/speed to keep up with Kinsler, and is that much younger. They are very close, but he deserves the bigger contract in a vacuum.

Now, when looking at the prices paid for these guys, even with the age factored in, Kinsler is a bargain no question. Especially when you consider he has 1 statistical year of the 3 already in the bank. There were a number of good bargains out there on the offensive side thus far.
Chris
Data City Cache Hogs

Re: Kinsler vs. Dozier/Kipnis

Reply #14 –
Fascinating analysis Chris.  I definitely like Chris's evaluation of Kipnis and I hope you're right.  I look at him similarly.  However, I definitely look at Dozier differently.  I think they have similar value depending on your needs.  The stats may look a little Uggla like but I don't see the same player.  Doziers a far better athlete and I don't think power is his only game.

I guess Carpenters defense doesn't bother me all that much.  The bat more than makes up for it and his positional flexibility is nice.  I think he will move primarily to 1st this year.  But I was pretty confident he'd get enough playing time at the other positions to qualify.

Totally spaced on Altuve.  What a year for second basemen!
Matt
Mother Lode Argonauts