Re: New Rule Proposal - Minor League Draft Changes
Reply #11 –
Rod,
First, thank you for giving a more detailed explanation of what the thinking behind this rule change is. Second, I'm really sorry to hear about the passing of employee. I can only imagine how tough it is not only on you, but your other employees.
As for the rule change though, I'll echo a lot of Brendt's sentiments and say that I still don't see why we need this rule change. On Brendt's point about not waiting to draft a player, hoping that next year said player will develop is exactly right. This league is too smart. With 20 teams and 25 man minor league rosters, if you think a player is going to burst on the scene, you're most likely going to take them towards to end of your draft, instead of waiting for them to be in the draft pool the next year. Because if you are right about your hunch on a player, you might never get a chance to take that player (like what Brendt was saying about Graterol). In a case like Graterol, this feels more like a penalty for not taking a chance on a guy in 2014. Or for example with my team in Juan Soto, who was originally signed in 2015, but wasn't drafted until 2017, when he had just burst on the scene as a potential star, but still miles away from the minor (he was still in low A ball at the time).
I also understand the idea about the relief pitchers, but I would concur with Brendt that those types of relief pitchers are such a fungible asset, that it seems like teams aren't going to be hitting gold on a great relief pitcher for 4 years or more. I'm not saying it doesn't happen, but with the rule change to limit how many innings a pitcher can pitch before being ineligible for the minor league draft, this seems like less and less of an issue.
On the comment that this doesn't hurt teams that draft well, that is a hard one to buy. Now, part of this might be the endowment effect, where this is taking away something that we have gotten use to and put value on, but I don't see how this gives new or improved value to teams that draft well. In this case, you aren't giving a new bonus to teams that take those players, but you imposing a new penalty of teams that don't take those players. Sorry, I just don't buy that.
Looking at last year's draft, it seems like almost every first round pick in the free agent draft got selected, along with numerous 2nd and late draft picks. Maybe it makes teams look at a 6th round pick, but I'm not sure how this shuffles the minor league draft by much. Teams will still draft these AA/AAA players you talk about (since they are closer to the majors), but the difference will be that teams are going to be a bit less likely to take a gamble on an international player making his debut in short-season A ball, and more likely to take it on that 6th round pick. And honestly, that international player starting at Princeton, WV, is just as much of a gamble as that 6th round pick, but that 6th round pick has slightly more value due to the rules.
Sorry, I guess my opinion is that we have a great group of owners, who are very smart and talented. The minor league draft is a huge challenge for teams to get talent, as so much talent is taken every year. We are going to find the talent no matter what. This rule change just seems to penalize teams that look at players that have some experience in the minors. I think it is fairer and better for the league to treat all minor leaguers the same with their initial contracts.