New Rule Proposal - Minor League Draft Changes

Topic: New Rule Proposal - Minor League Draft Changes (Read 6204 times) previous topic - next topic

Re: New Rule Proposal - Minor League Draft Changes

Reply #30 – December 11, 2019, 12:58:17 PM

I get the points being made by Rod but I don't find it compelling. We do agree that there are differences in risk based on how close a player is to the bigs. But, while you see a vast difference, I just don't. I think others are similarly minded. They're all risky and most important our market balances that out for us. With few exceptions, the most talented players get drafted as early as possible. If you wait on a player till he gets to AAA the likelihood of that player having star potential isn't there. If you choose to take a low ceiling player with less risk because they are closer to the bigs go ahead. Major league teams actually draft with this in mind already in college vs highschool. That is your perogitive. Let's be realistic, 9 times out of 10 that's the trade off the market gives us. So let the market take care of it. These solutions are addressing an issue that isn't really there.

Re: New Rule Proposal - Minor League Draft Changes

Reply #31 – December 11, 2019, 01:16:57 PM

I might be the lone wolf on this, I understand that.

But a system that allows the #11 overall pick in 2018 to go completely undrafted by us, primarily because he’s a high school kid and years away from MLB is systemically flawed. The debate here, I think, is the actual level of flawness (I don’t think that is actually a word, but you get my point). I sincerely believe it’s much higher than obviously everyone else.

Re: New Rule Proposal - Minor League Draft Changes

Reply #32 – December 11, 2019, 01:29:55 PM

Quote from: profjason – on December 11, 2019, 12:23:40 PM

Overall, I'm a no about this, because I just don't see the issue that this is trying to solve actually solving the problem. Moreover, I understand that you and maybe the rest of the COs think this is a problem, but I don't see it and I think a lot of GMs don't see it either as a problem to begin with.

I agree with this. And I'll go a step further and say I somewhat enjoy (not exactly the right word) the different drafting philosophies and focuses GM's have. Some draft lower ceiling/lower risk/closer to ready talent, some draft higher ceiling/higher risk/years away talent. If you look within MLB itself, you'd find different drafting/signing strategies within the organizations too. Some front offices draft higher risk types; some draft closer to ready college types; some have a mix.

Quote

I don't see the case you've made for how this is negatively affecting the league and affecting the competitive balance of the league. Again with 500 players on a minor league roster, teams have a mix of all types of players and I don't see how this changes that mix much (again, yes, it will on the margins, but on the whole, it won't make great changes), while just penalizing teams that take any player with any amount of minor league experience.

Again, agreed.

Re: New Rule Proposal - Minor League Draft Changes

Reply #33 – December 11, 2019, 01:32:29 PM

Rod, I think you're cherry picking. I argue your example is more exception over the rule.

Re: New Rule Proposal - Minor League Draft Changes

Reply #34 – December 11, 2019, 02:04:51 PM

Matt - I don't disagree with you that I'm cherry picking.

But I started having these discussions that I felt there was a problem before the 2018 draft ever existed. So, yes, I'm cherry picking. But I've felt the system was flawed before we ever decided not to draft him. I just didn't have a solution that I felt was viable to bring up for discussion. And I still don't know if this one is right or not. But I think we need to do something.

Re: New Rule Proposal - Minor League Draft Changes

Reply #35 – December 11, 2019, 02:29:34 PM

Quote from: Scurvy Dogs – on December 11, 2019, 01:16:57 PM

I might be the lone wolf on this, I understand that.

Yes, you might be.

Quote from: Scurvy Dogs – on December 11, 2019, 01:16:57 PM

But a system that allows the #11 overall pick in 2018 to go completely undrafted by us, primarily because he’s a high school kid and years away from MLB is systemically flawed. The debate here, I think, is the actual level of flawness (I don’t think that is actually a word, but you get my point). I sincerely believe it’s much higher than obviously everyone else.

While I agree with Matt that you are cherry picking here with Rodriguez, I also agree I think he is more the exception and not the rule in this case. I looked up both on Fangraphs and Baseball Prospectus with their information on the draft, and both had Rodriguez around the 36 ranked player in the draft (I think BP did fantasy picks, while FG was more future value). You could argue that the O's overdrafted Rodriguez, relative to industry consensus. I think we can all agree we all missed on Rodriguez in hindsight, but I think there was good reason for this and we all might learn a lesson from this to draft a guy like this, just in case. However, we aren't seeing loads of FYPD players not being selected in our draft when they are drafted high in real life. Rodriguez seems more like an outlier than a real problem.

Re: New Rule Proposal - Minor League Draft Changes

Reply #36 – December 11, 2019, 02:44:04 PM

I definitely understand this has been a concern for you for a while and that's totally valid.

At heart to this conversation, though, is the question, do you or don't you see a issue that needs resolution?

Talking about solutions is putting the cart before the horse. Right?

Re: New Rule Proposal - Minor League Draft Changes

Reply #37 – December 11, 2019, 06:44:20 PM

This is a hard no for me - for the possible reduction of rookie contract length, and/or the contract length based on when someone was drafted in MSB.

I think this is letting hindsight create an issue that doesn't exist. When we draft those first year players, Rule 4, J2, or otherwise, maybe you have a month of MiLB exp to work from? For the J2 guys, they might not swing a bat or throw a pitch until next season, some Rule 4 guys pitched so much during the year, they may not throw an inning until the following year. All you have is hype from publications, social media, and other baseball related media outlets. We are not scouts, unless we have one among us and I don't know it. We are guys who just love baseball, and play DMB because it's the closest most of us can get to the real thing. We do our research, learn some new stats every now and then, maybe watch a few scouting videos, watch a few minor league games, fall in love with a few players, etc. but what do we do in the end? We go out there and throw a dart and hope it hits. I don't think anyone should get credit for throwing a dart. That's not meant to insult anyone. Even the professional teams drafting these players for real don't truly know what they are getting, how are we to know? There are no guarantees, and thus no advantages.

Consider a guy like Rodriguez could pop-up, but just as quickly drop down again. He eventually makes the majors with tempered expectations, and I give him a MSB contract with the expectations he is now a 4th or 5th starter. Should I lose a year on him because I bought high (used high draft pick after he broke out) a year late? We don't know if that investment truly paid off until 1 to 2 years into their actual MSB contract, at least. Maybe he finds it again and becomes a #2, maybe he becomes a reliever, maybe I lose him for 1-2 years with TJ surgery. Hell, maybe all of that happens to the same player. Bottom line, unless you can guarantee me a positive end result when I draft a player that meets this criteria, which no one can, then there is no long term advantage for the owner that selects him.

Of course, there will be examples where the opposite will be true as well. Someone will get an absolute steal of a prospect drafted years after they were originally drafted/signed. I say great for the owner that got them. Especially, if the very situation Rod described happened for a rebuilding owner who really needed to hit on a prospect or two. To me, that is the system taking care of itself.

For me, this one definitely falls into the category of if it isn't broke, don't try to fix it.

Re: New Rule Proposal - Minor League Draft Changes

Reply #38 – December 19, 2019, 12:13:58 PM

We have made the decision to table this proposed amendment until next offseason.