2021 Season

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2021 Season

June 16, 2020, 08:13:40 AM

All,

Given the incredible amount of uncertainty over the 2020 MLB season, Rod and I believe that our best path forward is to plan for the 2021 MSB season using the 2020 Projection Season now regardless of whether MLB even plays any games next year. By doing this, we can play next year without any changes to our rules (that we can think of at least) and with a normal trade season and free agency. It also would not impact our remaining contract years which is a huge boon here. Moreover, even if MLB does play a 50 game season, given the small sample size, Rod and I are concerned about using those stats and then projecting PTL based on a 162 game season. For example, there are always examples of players with amazing stats against small sample sizes - i.e. if next year was this year, David Freese and his .315/.403/.599 with 162 AB might be the highest paid free agent until you see Sam Hillard at CF batting .273/.356/.649 with 77 AB (but which would be half season of AB with PTL adjustments). Of course, Tyler Glasnow might set the contract record with 1.78 ERA over 60.2 IP and 76 Ks which would be dialed up to something like 195 IP and 250 Ks, but still with a 1.78 ERA. Running a season with PTL dialed way up could look really screwy.

Obviously the downside to doing this is that the Projection Season Disk is already available (https://diamond-mind.com/collections/projection-seasons/products/2020-projection-season-zips) so you already know what everyone's stats will be at the end of the season. But since everyone knows that now, it shouldn't benefit any one owner more than any other owner. Yes, it eliminates trades where you are looking to acquire upside, but I think that the certainty and stability it adds for next year's season is worth the downside. I have already bought the season and am happy to share it with everyone with the caveat that you will need to buy it before next season.

That said, we are always open for other suggestions as long as it would be easy to implement. I don't know about the rest of you, but I am busier than ever at work and obviously at home with a new baby and am not looking to rewrite our rule-set to address a single coronavirus-impacted season.

Thanks.

Re: 2021 Season

Reply #1 – June 16, 2020, 08:26:00 AM

As a follow-up, the biggest issue that I see with this path forward is how to handle rookies. My feeling is that the best way to address this is to give owners the option to promote rookies based on the projections in the season disk. If they've exceeded the rookie limits in the disk, you may but are not required to promote the rookie. You could instead keep them on your minors team until they actually exceed rookies limits in real life. Of course, if MLB plays even a 50 game season and a rookie on your team exceeds their limits, then you would be required to promote.

Re: 2021 Season

Reply #2 – June 16, 2020, 10:53:10 AM

Sounds good, David. I agree - seems like the best path moving forward.

Re: 2021 Season

Reply #3 – June 16, 2020, 12:08:24 PM

Edit: Matt reminded me that Fangraphs has a ZIPS WAR projection that is a better option than what I previously proposed about how to deal with arbitration. Accordingly, I’m deleting my original post.

Re: 2021 Season

Reply #4 – June 18, 2020, 06:32:39 AM

David - The Robots are on board with this plan. I already have the season projection disk and I am still looking it over, but I don't see any reason your plan wouldn't work. I do have some remaining concerns, particularly in regard to minor leaguers. I haven't really thought them all through yet - but the issues I see arise from the fact that these players have basically not played much or at all. This makes it (more!) difficult to decide who to keep and who to move on. This is especially acute regarding the guys we just selected last year...we probably all have a group of players who have not played at all or at least enough to earn a projection. Anyway, as I said, I'm still thinking this through, and I hope to hear from some other GMs once they have had a chance to review the projection disk.
bob h - Robots

Re: 2021 Season

Reply #5 – June 18, 2020, 06:44:07 AM

I think each league will handle this slightly differently, much like the initial setup of varying leagues there will be different routes to handle this unique situation.

The contracts and salaries of this league require us to use something like the projection disk.

I'm on-board with the decision, why wouldn't I be.

Re: 2021 Season

Reply #6 – June 18, 2020, 07:16:08 AM

Quote from: bob_h – on June 18, 2020, 06:32:39 AM

David - The Robots are on board with this plan. I already have the season projection disk and I am still looking it over, but I don't see any reason your plan wouldn't work. I do have some remaining concerns, particularly in regard to minor leaguers. I haven't really thought them all through yet - but the issues I see arise from the fact that these players have basically not played much or at all. This makes it (more!) difficult to decide who to keep and who to move on. This is especially acute regarding the guys we just selected last year...we probably all have a group of players who have not played at all or at least enough to earn a projection. Anyway, as I said, I'm still thinking this through, and I hope to hear from some other GMs once they have had a chance to review the projection disk.
bob h - Robots

Bob,

I get it though there are always players who exhaust rookie status one year and then barely play the next year. So while this could have some impact if you choose to promote, it is not completely different than the real world. Hopefully by giving owners the flexibility to make a decision whether to promote or not with the projection season, no one will be forced to do something that they wouldn't otherwise do but for COVID-19. Basically if your minor leaguer does well under the projection season, then you promote them. If not, stash them.

Let's use Brendan McKay on my team as an example though I recognize he's a bit more clear-cut than other decisions. If COVID-19 had not happened, it is almost a guarantee that he would exhaust his rookie status in real-life 2020 and I would be forced to promote. Because of COVID-19, he may not exhaust his rookie status in 2020. However, he will almost certainly will in real-life 2021 (unless Manfred screws something else up) in which case he will be promoted then. While I could wait, his projection season stats still likely mean I will promote him for MSB 2021.

Re: 2021 Season

Reply #7 – June 18, 2020, 09:07:48 AM

David - OK, I get it, your example of McKay is clear enough; my issue is this: MLB had held its rookie FA draft, and the MSB version is upcoming. I have traded away a few good players (ie, Ryu and Bieber) in order to acquire some high draft choices. I now have 6 draft choices in the first 3 rounds, and thus a good chance of snagging some top prospects for my team. But I already have 24 players in the minors - I have to clear roster space for new draftees, and I have very little data to help me make decisions. Normally, we would by this time have a good deal of data to help inform such decisions. As it is, my only choices to open up minor league roster slots are to promote some guys prematurely, or release some guys without any data at all. Since my preferred team-building strategy is primarily through the draft, I have a bad feeling about this aspect going forward. It may well be that the answer is : "Too bad, everybody is in the same boat". But I do know I don't much like my options here.
bob h - Robots

Re: 2021 Season

Reply #8 – June 18, 2020, 09:27:12 AM

Robert:

I get your point on waiving players and unfortunately we are all in the same boat on that. I have 23 minor leaguers and don't want to promote anyone right now so my only option is waiver as well. I do recognize that with your 6 picks in the top 3. this is a bigger issue for you than for me. But for other guys on your squad that you may be considering promoting to make space for those many high picks (Duplantier, Banda, etc...), you'd still have to promote them now to make space for those 6 picks in the first 3 drafts. It's quite likely that they would have exceeded their limits (and may still do so if MLB plays 60 games this year). With Duplantier, that would mean you gets his 30 IP for the remaining 2020 MSB year, you gets his 98 projected IP in MSB 2021, and you would get whatever he posts in real life for MSB 2022. It's a difference, but not a huge difference.

I'm not trying to say that answer is necessarily the best one, but I'm not sure what all the options are. We're in uncharted territory and so forgive me as we try to deal with this on the fly. We could always temporarily increase the number of minor league spots, but do you have another suggestion for how to handle this?

Re: 2021 Season

Reply #9 – June 18, 2020, 10:08:00 AM

I think the projection disk is the best way to handle a cruddy situation. I think its the least problematic system, though nothing will be perfect.

One of those potential imperfections came out while taking a gander at the projection disk I came across an interesting situation on my minor league roster. Late in the offseason it was revealed that Andres Munoz would require Tommy John and be out for the 2020 season. The projection disk was created before his injury so he actually has stats in the projection.

Do we use those stats or throw those stats away since in real life he would not have stats?

Re: 2021 Season

Reply #10 – June 18, 2020, 10:45:28 AM

David - I guess you're right, and I'm OK with going ahead as is. I just wanted to get my vent in! I've got several SPs who fit the same profile as Duplantier. So the worst that can happen is I have to promote a few guys early, and maybe waive a few guys who will certainly go on to become All Stars. I was amused by a lot of the stats assigned to my guys by the projection disk. Quite a few who I thought had no chance of appearing on an MLB roster this season are assigned very big-league usable stats. So I guess we all still have options.
bob h - Robots

Re: 2021 Season

Reply #11 – June 18, 2020, 10:51:07 AM

"Do we use those stats or throw those stats away since in real life he would not have stats"
Matt - I think, if we use the projection disk, then Munoz should be usable. Arise and be healed, Brother Andres!
bob h - Robots

Re: 2021 Season

Reply #12 – June 18, 2020, 12:06:22 PM

Quote from: dsj421 – on June 18, 2020, 09:27:12 AM

I'm not trying to say that answer is necessarily the best one, but I'm not sure what all the options are. We're in uncharted territory and so forgive me as we try to deal with this on the fly. We could always temporarily increase the number of minor league spots, but do you have another suggestion for how to handle this?

I'm reading through this whole thread and thinking through things as well, but I wanted to voice a quick opinion on increasing the MiL roster limit temporarily. I like the idea and think it's a viable remedy to the issue Robert brought up. Maybe increase the rosters to 30 for this year and then reduce them each season by one or two over the next few seasons to return them to the current 25.

Or just leave them at 30. You know how much I love the MiL! ;-)

Re: 2021 Season

Reply #13 – June 18, 2020, 12:32:26 PM

"increasing the MiL roster limit temporarily"

Well, I sure support this proposal. I'd like to hear what some other GMs think about it. Also, I don't know if this would be too much of a chore for the CO to implement - we ARE trying to keep it simple. But it certainly addresses the issues that are concerning me...
bob h - Robots

Re: 2021 Season

Reply #14 – June 18, 2020, 12:35:30 PM

If we are talking about our minors draft, I want to point out that MLB has delayed the J2 International signing period to another J, January 15th, 2021.

The pool of players to be selected in this years draft will be drastically different unless the "unsigned" international players are still eligible to be drafted this season.