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Topic: 2021 Season (Read 3261 times) previous topic - next topic

Re: 2021 Season

Reply #15 –
Quote from: bob_h – on
"increasing the MiL roster limit temporarily"

Well, I sure support this proposal. I'd like to hear what some other GMs think about it. Also, I don't know if this would be too much of a chore for the CO to implement - we ARE trying to keep it simple.  But it certainly addresses the issues that are concerning me...
bob h - Robots


Robert, it wouldn't be a chore to implement.  I've already spoken to Rod and he and I are in agreement that this is a good solution this year to owners not really being able to waive minor leaguers.  So unless I hear some significant objection to this, I think that about 7 days before our draft, we will increase the number of slots to 30 with the idea that we would decrease it back down after a year.
David
Phoenix Miners

Re: 2021 Season

Reply #16 –
Hurray, enlightened leadership! Can you guys take over for Manfred?
bob h - Robots

Re: 2021 Season

Reply #17 –
If we are using the projection disk.  Is there a way to calculate WAR for those needing arbitration? I haven't looked at any examples, but if there was a significant difference in the Zips WAR and the projection disk, i could see an issue.
Brent A. Brown
Chicago Rum Runners
President of Baseball Operations

World Series Champions
CJWL - 2017 (Grinders)

LCS
NABL-AL 2018 (Louisville Bats)

Re: 2021 Season

Reply #19 –
Quote from: thebuland – on
Fangraphs provides a WAR for the Zips projections. For example, they have Verlander at 4.7.

https://www.fangraphs.com/players/justin-verlander/8700/stats?position=P



I understand that. What I'm saying is, if the projection disk is different from the zips projections, a different WAR could be calculated from the projection disk. The projection disk is what we'll be playing from and presents an actual value.

In the past few seasons since adding fWAR for arbitration raises, those are based upon actual stats that we are using.

It appears that for 2021, we'll be using a projection disk for gameplay and another for WAR. Those values will have differences. That is all.

Asking the question, can WAR be calculated by formula from the projection disk data?
Brent A. Brown
Chicago Rum Runners
President of Baseball Operations

World Series Champions
CJWL - 2017 (Grinders)

LCS
NABL-AL 2018 (Louisville Bats)

Re: 2021 Season

Reply #20 –
I get your concern, but it is unfounded since the Projections Disk uses Zips. You'll notice that the Zips numbers on Fangraphs are identical to the projection disk and thankfully Fangraphs has already calculated fWAR based on Zips so our arbitration process will be in sync with our game play next year.

https://diamond-mind.com/collections/projection-seasons/products/2020-projection-season-zips

Matt
Mother Lode Argonauts

Re: 2021 Season

Reply #21 –
I'm late to the conversation, but I'll add one other item to consider as it relates to this shortened season impacting our rule-set.  I've read a number of teams will use the expanded roster to provide development players more playing time (especially rebuilding teams).  We could see a number of top prospects get 10 AB's or 4 IP's that would normally not get ANY playing time.  The Mariners for example, are expected to place this years 1st round pick on the eligible roster. 

Maybe this is just something to be aware of as we select, sign, or trade certain players or maybe its something the CO keeps an eye on during this season to see if we end up with way too many players become MSB eligible too early. 
Darrell
River City Cutthroats

Re: 2021 Season

Reply #22 –
Good point. Though with only 60 games I don't expect those guys will rack up a ton of at bats or innings pitched though it's all cumulative and could have impacts further down the line.

I also think the Universal DH for 2020 could give some at bats to rookies since teams haven't had the opportunity to use Free Agency to fill. If MLB were to revert back in 2021 to no DH in the NL, those at bats would dry up an we could see some youngsters who needed to be promoted back in the minors.

I do see the writing on the wall for pitchers hitting, My best guess is the DH in the NL sticks making this impact less of a concern.

Very interesting stuff all around.
Matt
Mother Lode Argonauts

Re: 2021 Season

Reply #23 –
I think there was a discussion earlier, but I can't find it about playing time using the projections disc. I know when I looked through it, it seems like players were not getting as much playing time as we normally might see. Are we thinking about bumping up playing time limits to like 110% or 115% to compensate for the fact that most players aren't projected to get as many ABs or IPs as normal?
Jason
Ankeny ACLs

"I'm pissed off now, Jobu. Look, I go to you. I stick up for you. You no help me now. I say 'F#@& you Jobu', I do it myself."
-Pedro Cerrano, Major League

Re: 2021 Season

Reply #24 –
We did discuss it, but when I actually cross-referenced PTL in the database versus real life, that concern is not a real one.  Taking your team for example:

Lindor, who has the most AB on your team, has 637 AB in projections which is about 10 AB higher than his average over 2016-2019 (and 39 AB higher than 2019).  Miguel Sano, who is in the middle of AB on your team, has 418 AB in the projections which is quite a bit better than his average over the past 4 years (he averaged 377 AB) and a lot better than the 266 in 2018 or 380 in 2019.  Pitchers are likewise not particularly impacted.  Yes, someone like Shane Bieber had 214.1 IP in 2019 and only 195.2 IP in the projections, but someone like Mike Soroka has 174.2 IP in real life and 176 IP in the projections.  Moreover, none of the players in the projections disk had season ending or season delaying injuries so there should be no dead weight on your roster.

Modifying PTL for 2021 doesn't seem necessary given how DMB set BA and IP for their projections.
David
Phoenix Miners