2021 Season Q&A

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2021 Season Q&A

July 21, 2020, 12:27:45 PM

Q: What statistics will we be using for our MSB 2021 season?
A. We will be using the DMB 2020 projection disk which you can purchase here: https://diamond-mind.com/products/2020-projection-season-zips

Q: What impact will the statistics compiled during the 2020 real-life major league baseball season have on our season.
A: Generally none for our 2021 season. As far as MSB is concerned, this MLB year doesn’t exist. Unfortunately, for a number of reasons, using the statistics for a 60 game MLB season poses a lot of problems if extrapolated out to a 162 game season. Just as important however, is the continuing threat that coronavirus plays in 2020. Who knows if they will even finish this season or how many star players on each of your teams will end up out half the season recovering from coronavirus? MLB is preparing for that eventuality by increasing the roster size to 60 players. While we have that option, it creates all sort of problems for managing our league down the line. Ultimately, using the ZIPS projections is a much simpler solution.

Q: How will we handle arbitration for our players without a full season of WAR to compare against?
A: DMB’s projection season is based on Dan Szymborski’s ZIPs projections. Using those projected stats, Dan also calculates each player’s WAR. Though those values have been removed from Fangraphs, Dan sent us a copy of his spreadsheet with those WAR values. You can access that spreadsheet here: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1zTn8yy--UgQNCGwLVDo-qkgG_xHa4e6sUml01Yc_hp8/edit?usp=sharing

Q: What will happen to my minor league players?
A: I think that these projections are over-inclusive in terms of players making it to the major leagues during a projected 162 game season (and particularly compared to a shortened 60 game season). I think you will find that many of your minor league players contribute in some way in the projections and could be promoted if you desire. Conversely, because they are over-inclusive and are based on a 162 game season, it is likely that many of these minor leaguers will not exhaust their rookie status during the 2020 MLB season. Therefore, we are giving owners the option - you are not required to promote anyone during the 2021 MSB season. You may promote or you can stash them for the year.

Q: What happens if my minor leaguers exhaust their rookie status during the 2020 MLB season? Won’t I have to promote them next January-March 2021 or lose them?
A: No, you will not. For all intents and purposes, the 60 games played this summer have no impact on MSB during the 2020-2021 offseason. However, once we reach the 2021-2022 offseason and minor leaguers are again required to be promoted, we will use any stats from the 2020 season (and all other real-life seasons) to calculate if a player exceeded their rookie eligibility. As an example, Brendan McKay pitched 49 innings for the Rays in 2019. If he pitches 1 inning in 2020 in MLB, he would normally lose his rookie status for the 2021 MSB season. Because of our temporary rule change however, McKay will not lose that status and could be stashed in 2021 before a required promotion in 2022 in MSB. That being said, if his projected stats are meaningful, the Miners might decide to promote McKay anyway.

Q: What about the 2022 MSB season?
A: Presuming that MLB doesn’t lockout in 2021, we will return to running MSB using real-life statistics. At that point, we anticipate that all rules will return to normal.

Q: If we don't have to promote rookies this offseason, I won't have any room to draft anyone in the rookie draft next year!
A: We've decided to temporarily increase the number of rookie spots on every team to 30. This will go into effect as of July 29, 2020 and will remain in effect until MSB Opening Day in 2022 at which point you would be required to promote players who have exhausted their rookie status over the 2020 or 2021 MLB seasons.

Please add whatever questions you have and we will do our best to answer them here.

Re: 2021 Season Q&A

Reply #1 – July 21, 2020, 12:43:42 PM

Overall, I think this is a good plan for the upcoming season, given the uncertain nature of what is happening in real life. I do think the idea of all types of roster problems with players going on and off the COVID-19 IL and things like that would make it a real challenge on GMs keeping their teams straight.

It is great that Dan shared with us the WAR values. That will help us out a lot in determining arbitration (although I'm scared to see how many raises I'm going to need to give out).

I do have one question though. I'm a bit concerned about if we need to increase the playing time limits, since it does appear that the projections list might push down innings pitched for players. The most in the database is 200 to Garrit Cole. I'm not sure if bumping it up to 110% or 115% might be a good idea. I'm not sure, but I know that there has been some discussion of changing the playing time limits up a bit, and maybe we should revisit that discussion given that we'll be using the projections disc.

Re: 2021 Season Q&A

Reply #2 – July 21, 2020, 02:35:35 PM

Quote from: profjason – on July 21, 2020, 12:43:42 PM

I do have one question though. I'm a bit concerned about if we need to increase the playing time limits, since it does appear that the projections list might push down innings pitched for players. The most in the database is 200 to Garrit Cole. I'm not sure if bumping it up to 110% or 115% might be a good idea. I'm not sure, but I know that there has been some discussion of changing the playing time limits up a bit, and maybe we should revisit that discussion given that we'll be using the projections disc.

Give us until next week to talk about it. We're in the final stages of packing before leaving tomorrow early. But it does raise a good question considering there are 10-20 guys with over 200 IP this year.

Re: 2021 Season Q&A

Reply #3 – January 01, 2021, 01:12:10 PM

Before I had access to the spreadsheet with the ZIPS WAR I went to baseball reference.
Big difference, Judge was an actual 0.5 WAR, on the projection sheet he's at 4.5 or 4.6
Huge difference in his arbitration salary.

It matters not to me, seems we'd have to re-do a lot of stuff to use the 162 game option.

Re: 2021 Season Q&A

Reply #4 – January 02, 2021, 05:59:14 PM

Where did you see him as a 0.5?

In any case, the difference is just where we are drawing stats from. Dan Szymborski's projections disk generated a full season WAR based on his stats projections over a 162 game season. That's key for our league which is why we considered and are now using it given our arbitration mechanic. Almost any other set of stats and we would have to force some other square-shaped stat into a round hole.

Re: 2021 Season Q&A

Reply #5 – January 03, 2021, 06:23:23 AM

My mistake, on baseball-reference.com he's an actual 1.1 WAR for 2020.

Far from the 4.6 in the spreadsheet.

Again, we;re all using the same sheet so it really doesn't matter.
Is this only for this odd season or do we use the projection disc every year?

Re: 2021 Season Q&A

Reply #6 – January 03, 2021, 06:30:56 AM

It's only for this season. Ordinarily we would use real statistics, but we made the decision to use the projection disk this year in July when it was still uncertain that a season (even an abbreviated one) would be played. Just an FYI though for arbitration - we use fWAR (Fangraphs WAR) and not bWAR. In general, we feel that fWAR is more accurate at calculating defense than bWAR.

Re: 2021 Season Q&A

Reply #7 – January 13, 2021, 03:39:12 PM

when do I start doing arbitration?

Re: 2021 Season Q&A

Reply #8 – January 13, 2021, 06:59:35 PM

Quote from: Pittsburgh – on January 13, 2021, 03:39:12 PM

when do I start doing arbitration?

You need to make a decision before free agency starts for these guys:

Byron Buxton
Archie Bradley
Corey Seager
Robbie Ray
Trevor Bauer

And sometime before our actual season starts for these guys:

Austin Barnes
Trey Mancini
Manuel Margot
Dylan Bundy
Colin Moran