ONE YEAR LATER- Looking back on our 2021 Minor League Drafts

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ONE YEAR LATER- Looking back on our 2021 Minor League Drafts

August 20, 2022, 12:38:43 PM

I thought the 2021 post draft thread here was fun------ the one that asked questions and had managers try to analyze their draft.
Now, one year later we can talk about what went right and what went wrong.
For my team the Arizona Koi
16 draft picks- Most of the prospects have retained their 2021 status.
I have now cut 4 of them, but mostly late round picks.
RD 8- Kyrie Paris - was his teams 6th rank prospect, now 25th
RD 11- Freddie Zamora- was 11, now 25
RD 15- Jessie Franklin 10 to 13
RD 16- Petey Halpin NR to 30.
Overall I think I had a real good draft. In addition to most high round picks holding their high "prospect status" I had several latter round picks gain positions in the eyes of the baseball america evaluators
RD 5 Drew Romo was 16th, now 3rd
RD 7 Curtis Mead was 12th, now 3rd
RD 9 Joey Weimer was 27th, now 4th
RD 14 Colby Mayo was 15th, now 7th.
Ok, Im done bragging..........How is your 2021 draft looking?

Re: ONE YEAR LATER- Looking back on our 2021 Minor League Drafts

Reply #1 – August 20, 2022, 01:46:50 PM

I am far from done yet, but I love this. Thanks, Jim. I'll be opining in here after I take about 6-7 more guys.

Re: ONE YEAR LATER- Looking back on our 2021 Minor League Drafts

Reply #2 – August 20, 2022, 05:37:00 PM

All of my guys are on target to be 1st ballot HoFers in 15-20 years.

LOL

Well, maybe not Pedro Pineda with his 50% K rate in A ball. Yuck…

Re: ONE YEAR LATER- Looking back on our 2021 Minor League Drafts

Reply #3 – August 22, 2022, 08:33:41 AM

Here's a blow by blow analysis of all of my picks. All ranks per Baseball America:
* Oswald Peraza (1.19) - NYY #2 from #6, #76 in top 100. Feel good about this one.
* Luis Matos (2.7) - SFG #5 from #4, struggling in A+ at 20
* Hedbert Perez (2.18) - MIL #18 from #3, cut
* Cristian Hernandez (4.19) - CHC #3 from #2, fair results in RK league at 18
* Eury Perez (4.23) - MIA #1 from #1, #8 in top 100. In AA and looks like a winner.
* Josh Winder (5.19) - Mid/Back rotation with MIN but currently hurt.
* Jake Meyers (6.11) - MLB Reserve or AAAA type player.
* Bryan de la Cruz (6.19) - MLB Reserve or AAAA type player.
* Nick Plummer (7.11) - cut
* Tyler Gilbert (7.19) - Looks like a back of rotation type with ARI but currently hurt (elbow)
* James Wood (8.11) - The headliner in the Soto/Bell trade. #3 rank with WSN and #37 in top 100
* Zach DeLoach (8.19) - SEA #9 from #17. OK at AA at 23. I cut but perhaps too soon.
* Ben Kudrna (9.12) - KCR #5 from #8, mixed results in A at 19.
* Gilberto Jimenez (9.19) - BOS #23 from #7. Struggling in A+ at 21 and cut.
* Angel Martinez (10.19) - CLE #12 from #29. 861 OPS at A+ at 20 and recently promoted to AA.
* Izaac Pacheco (11.19) - DET #10. 758 OPS at A and just promoted to A+.
* Cristian Santana (12.19) - DET #15. Struggling in A league at 18.
* Dylan Smith (13.19) - DET #14. Pitching well at A+ at 22.
* Otto Lopez (14.19) - MLB Reserve or AAAA type player and cut.

Oswald Peraza, Eury Perez and James Wood seem to be the most impactful picks at this point. Overall, I have 8 prospects in BA's top 100 and 10 in MLB Pipeline's top 100. Things should only get better with the high picks I'll have in next year's draft.

Re: ONE YEAR LATER- Looking back on our 2021 Minor League Drafts

Reply #4 – August 23, 2022, 02:23:22 PM

Dang, I just realized I misread your post, Jim.

One year later, looking back, I had a pretty solid risk-filled draft that panned out alright.

I'm a firm believer that if you know what numbers to look for, you can find some serious gems in very late rounds that'll be great contributors to their teams (if not All-Stars in the show), who for whatever reason don't turn the heads of mainstream ranking wonks. My draft in 2021 proved that 4 times and counting... And yes, I've got some embarrassing names on here as well!

Analysis:
R3) I went for broke and traded away R1 and R2, so my first pick wasn't until 3.18, and it was probably my worst decision in the whole draft. He was a reach, and I ended up flipping him to the Brewers in a rather elaborate deal in Feb of this year. Too many pieces in that deal to know who "won" that trade just yet.

R4a) Clarke Schmidt (4.15), whom I flipped to the Madmen for one year of Josh Donaldson.
R4b) 4.18 went to Benny Montgomery. I like the kid. Fangraphs and Fantrax have him around #100 overall. Speed, power and a good eye - my kinda prospect.
R4c) Jose Rodriquez, SS CWS. 21 years old, 40 steals and 11 jacks in AA... I'll keep him around. I think it's a crime he's not higher on the White Sox list and didn't make the BA 100.

R5a) Blaine Crim, DH for the Rangers. Dude hit 29 bombs for AA in 2021, but was off the radar for most experts. Still is, as he's having a very pedestrian season and getting on the wrong side of 25. He's likely my next waiver...
R5b) Spencer Strider - along with Brandon Pfaadt (read on), a huge highlight for my 2021 draft. Ace-stuff out of the gate, sporting a 2.95 ERA for the Braves with 100+ IPs so far, 151 Ks. ONE HUNDRED FIFTY ONE!

R6) Korry Howell, utility guy traded to the Padres in the off-season and has dropped off quite a bit. I waived him to start the draft, hope I didn't give up too soon.

I had 4 picks in R8, two of which are role players already on my 40-man (Riley Adams, C; and Max Schrock, UT), but both guys are having terrible 2022 campaigns. Andre Jackson (RHP, LAD) can't find the plate in AAA this year. But Matt Brash was my 8.18, and I'm pretty proud of that. Good things will come from this dude in the very near future.

R9) Do I have to post my thoughts about Round 9? Steele Walker and Brandon Lewis. Both already waived. Meh.

R10) Went for a couple really young guys, and one pitcher on the up, but getting older...
- 10.2 Aaverson Artega (#5 in the Giants org)
- 10.12 Adrian Pinto (#15 in the Jays system) - teetering on the edge of MSB extinction
- 10.18 Glen Otto, RHP TEX - a respectable 4.66 ERA in 94 IPs and counting for the big club this year. I'll sign him, but he'll only see mop-up duty, as I've got 5 starters with more innings and all under a 3 ERA, plus two more with as many innings and better numbers than Otto.

R11) Three young, unheralded pitchers at the time:
11.2 - Ryan Murphy (SFG), struggling with injuries... I may cut him depending on how he compares with others late in this current draft
11.12 - Joey Estes (OAK), regressing... another cut candidate
11.18 - Brandon Pfaadt (AZ), maybe my best pick of the draft? He's leading all MiLB with 170 Ks, rising fast on the scene

R12) The Gonzalez "Brothers"
12.2 Romy Gonzalez, CWS SS/2B. I still like the guy - working his way back from injury and close to the show again.
12.12 Oscar Gonzalez, CLE OF, made the show and will split half a season next year with Michael Brantley with similar numbers.

Having Baseball America's Top 100 names like Gabriel Moreno (#3), Miguel Vargas (#27), Michael Busch (#50), Gavin Stone (#56), Ceddanne Rafaela (#87), and Brandon Pfaadt (#92), and getting to promote others in 2023 that have graduated from that list (Matt Brash, Spencer Strider), the future looks pretty good for the Blues.

That was fun to recap! Thank God for sick days sometimes... head colds suck, but the rest is nice.

Re: ONE YEAR LATER- Looking back on our 2021 Minor League Drafts

Reply #5 – August 23, 2022, 10:22:07 PM

1.07   Emerson Hancock
Ranked 4th in Mariners system in 21, now 6th.
FV dropped from 50 to 45 primarily due to some nagging injury concerns.
But we're still very high on the 2020 1st round pick as he's got a 3.03 ERA in AA. Top 100 prospect

2.04   Justin Foscoe
Ranked 2nd in Rangers system in 21, now 6th.
FV dropped from 45+ to 45, but still a top 100 prospect in some books.
There was some debate during the draft if I massively reached here. But he's slashing .286/.367/.475 in AA. We still really like the former 2020 1st round pick, just might have taken him a round or two too early. I can live with that.

2.15   Mick Abel
Ranked 2nd in Texas system in 21, now 1st
FV went from 50 to 55
Stud. The 2020 1st round pick (notice a trend?) was recently promoted to AA. Top 100 prospect

2.16   Dillon Dingler
Ranked 6th in Tigers system in 21, now 4th
FV went from 45+ to 50
Breaking the trend, Dingler was a 2nd round pick in 2020. Slumped at the end of last year after breaking a thumb and scuffling a bit in AA this year as well. He was however selected for the 22 Futures Game so it's not all down. But maybe a bit concerning overall, and I expect that FV to go down after the year.

3.09   Matt Canterino
Ranked 7th in Twins system in 21, now 8th
FV went from 50 to 45+
Rice graduate so, well, you can expect arm troubles. More on that in a second. He has a career minor league ERA of 1.48, WHIP of 0.859, K/9 of 13.8, and SO/W of 3.71. But he also only has a combined total of 85 innings since the start of 2019 and his numbers in 22 are down from his super-duper 19 and 21 seasons. Oh, and it was just announced he needs TJS after being shut down since June with an "elbow strain". Lovely, just lovely.

3.12   Ryan Pepiot
He has a 4.02 ERA in 7 starts for the Dodgers in 22. Could be a replacement for Buehler next season with a minor league track record to back it up and expect success. This pick is reaping some immediate rewards!

4.21   Gavin Williams
Unranked in 21 (21 1st round pick), ranked 8th heading into Guardians system in 22
FV of 45+
Combined 1.80 ERA over 95 innings in 22, already promoted to AA. WHIP < 1.000, All good things here.

5.04   Nick Bitsko
Can we just withhold some judgement here? After his big ESPN article in 2020 he had labrum surgery before the draft and is just now finally getting back on the mound. But it hasn't been pretty so far.

9.16   Pedro Pineda
Gross. Just gross. Can I say it again? Gross.
50% K rate in A ball is ridiculous. He's also only 18 with a lot of hype coming out of the Dominican. So we'll give him another year, but let's just say he's on a very short leash. Very short.

10.16 Jackson Chourio
The first rule of Chourio is we don't talk about Chourio.

11.16 Ben Leeper
Unheralded prospect who tore up AAA for the Cubs in 21. I mean he was filthy. Dominated AA and then after his callup - 20.2 innings, 6 hits, 9 walks, 31 K's. For an 11th round pick that's worth a flyer as I expected him to be part of the Cubs bullpen this season. And...he's still good(ish), but he's also still in AAA. Take out the fluky 10 HR allowed in 35 innings and his numbers otherwise look good in 22. He's not Rule 5 eligible until after 23 so that explains the lack of promotion. But there also might not be anything here. Give it another year and see what happens.

***************

Overall I think positive. Some really promising pitching depth and Pepiot will almost assuredly force a promotion this offseason. Chourio = star. The flip side is there might be a couple misses as well, but nothing I'm giving up on just yet (although I've got my eyes on you Pineda).

Re: ONE YEAR LATER- Looking back on our 2021 Minor League Drafts

Reply #6 – August 24, 2022, 07:50:43 PM

My 2021 draft was full of young, lower level, raw athletes with promise but not a lot of track record. Thirteen rounds of that led to just two rounds of selections this year. I just didn't have much to go on and nothing to warrant cutting these guys a year later. Most of what my 2021 consisted of is going to take a few years to evaluate.

Round 1: Max Meyer - Highly promising start saw him rise through the minors to his major league debut in just a year and a half. Unfortunately, he is now lost to Tommy John surgery. Still, highly promising power arm.

Round 2: Sal Frelick - Second coming of Tony Gwynn? All Frelick has done since being drafted in 2021 is hit. He has risen all the way to AAA in about a seasons' worth of time and hit .333 with a .412 OBP over all levels. He is currently hitting .435 in AAA since being promoted a little less than a month ago.

Round 3: Jose Miranda - Another guy who has done nothing but hit at every level. Since an adjustment period with the Twins upon his promotion in May, Miranda has taken over the cleanup spot in the Twins lineup and hit .316 with a .395/.516/.911 line and driven in 49 runs in three months.

Round 4: Austin Hendrick - Young and raw when drafted. Young and raw today. HUGE strikeout numbers (~ 38% K rate over his year-plus), but huge power too. Must cut down on K's if he's going to progress.

Round 5: Carlos Colmenarez - Young and raw when drafted. Young and raw today. Still just 18 years old and yet to make his full season debut, but the early reports are still very positive. Check back in a couple . . . five . . . years...

Round 6: Heriberto Hernandez - Another offense first young bat, he has produced at every level, but also will have to curtail strikeout issues to fully develop.

Round 7: Cole Wilcox - Succumbed to TJ surgery as well. Just returned a couple weeks ago. Promising start before being lost for a year, and I'm going to trust the Rays development program (McClanahan, Rasmussen, Glasnow...).

Round 8: Eddys Leonard - BIG homer pick here after a breakout year in 2021. He has regressed somewhat this season.

Round 9: Isaiah Greene - Another young, raw athlete when drafted. He is showing uncommon plate discipline and patience (20% BB rate / .397 OBP) and speed (33/35 SB). Big raw power has not shown up yet, but a very good start to his development at Low A.

Round 10: Ryan Ward - Another homer pick. Ward has done nothing but hit at every level, yet he does not receive much love. After 27 home runs and a .384 wOBA in High A last year, he is on pace for 30+ homers and a similar wOBA at AA this year. Defensive shortcomings limit his upside, but with the DH in the NL now...

Round 11: Rickardo Perez - 18 years old and hasn't made his full season debut yet, but still very promising. Strong defense and a developing bat portend good things, but a . . . long . . . way . . . to . . . go...

Round 12: Daniel Montesino - Bat first like Ward, but with a better hit tool. Limited defense like Ward also. Unlike Ward, Montesino has lost the last year-plus to Tommy John. Promising bat nonetheless.

Round 13: Xzavion Curry - Rose through all minor league levels to make his major league debut in just over a year and a half. Good arm, excellent control, but needs to fully develop a major league secondary pitch.

All in all, I am thrilled with my 2021 draft looking back now. And if some of these youngsters continue to develop as they progress up the ladder, it could look very special in a couple years.

Re: ONE YEAR LATER- Looking back on our 2021 Minor League Drafts

Reply #7 – August 24, 2022, 07:58:37 PM

Quote from: Scurvy Dogs – on August 23, 2022, 10:22:07 PM

10.16 Jackson Chourio
The first rule of Chourio is we don't talk about Chourio.

"Round 2: Sal Frelick - Second coming of Tony Gwynn? All Frelick has done since being drafted in 2021 is hit. He has risen all the way to AAA in about a seasons' worth of time and hit .333 with a .412 OBP over all levels. He is currently hitting .435 in AAA since being promoted a little less than a month ago."

Guess we'll both be rooting for Brewer outfield farmhands.