Re: 2023 Rule Changes
Reply #23 –
I agree with a lot of what Matt has put here. However, there are a few things that I keep coming back to in my thinking on this issue. One is just changing the system right before free agency and when teams might have already been using the old system in their calculations for building their teams. This is a solid reason to at least delay and discuss this more.
However, another idea that keeps coming back to me is what are the alternative decisions that a team can make. I've always thought the biggest decision is do you offer or not offer arbitration during that first season, since you are giving up the opportunity to have a player for a season for only $500K. Specifically, I wanted to look at my decision on Mookie Betts.
Mookie Betts | Don't Offer Arbitration | Old System | Proposed System |
After 2018 Season (Career WAR = 30.6, Season WAR = 10.5) | $500K | $5M | $7M |
After 2019 Season (Season WAR = 6.4) | FA ($12.75M - $17M) | $9M | $11M |
After 2020 Season (Projected WAR = 6.4 due to COVID) | FA ($12.75M - $17M) | $13M | $15M |
Total Spent | $26M - $34.5M | $27M | $33M |
In this case, I'm making an assumption that Mookie in free agency would get somewhere between $15 million to $20 million and the team that has Mookie would be able to sign him and get the 15% HTD. It is interesting that under the previous system, the total amount spent on Mookie would be near the low end of letting him play out the last season cheaply and then signing him closer to $15M. On the other hand, the proposed system would be more like Mookie getting a new contract at the higher price. This is for a superstar putting up All-Star performances, so this might be the high end of things.
So, I'm not sure if I'm seeing how the value system on arbitration is currently off base. Again, I think a discussion of using career WAR versus previous season WAR is a good discussion and I see the value of using career WAR. However, I would keep the top salary in the first season of arbitration at $5 million and then scale the career WAR to that limit. Maybe instead of going up by $500K, we should do $250K.
Again, I think delaying any new system until next off-season would be a good thing; although I also think we should have the scale and if we are doing career or previous season WAR decided before the season begins, so everyone will know what to expect during the season.