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Third Attempt at some Free Agency Free Analysis

Based on David's feedback I corrected the previous attempt.  I was just going too fast the first time.

The chart below is comparing the actual DMB salary in blue to relative value based on 2015 and 2016 MLB performance.  2016 and 2017 years are used to illustrate the DMB season and for further comparison. 

Some Takeaways
Arrieta was signed for great value in 2016. Signed for $14m, but worth $16m.  Unfortunately he is drastically overpaid by almost $6m in 2017.
Cueto has been a bargain for two years running. 
Liriano collapsed in 2017
Pineda and JA Happ illustrate that there is some value to be found.




Darrell
River City Cutthroats

Re: Third Attempt

Reply #1 –
Through the first week of Free Agency we've seen a 32.5% increase in the relative cost of Starting Pitchers. 

This next chart compares the 2016 value to 2017 value based on this 32.5% increase.  Again this is using 2016 MLB performance for the 2017 DMB Season. 

Some Takeaways
The increase made the contracts of Cueto, Esstrada, Iwakuma, Leake, PIneda that were established in last Free Agency extreme bargains as was to be expected. 
These 7 pitchers is a relatively small sample size and it will be interesting to see what the data does based on week 2.
What isn't captured here is potential.  Darvish is below value, but of course we all expected him to rebound. 
And finally, it appears that Rod could have paid a bit more for Kershaw :).

Darrell
River City Cutthroats

Re: Third Attempt at some Free Agency Free Analysis

Reply #2 –
Quote from: dgonser – on
And finally, it appears that Rod could have paid a bit more for Kershaw :).

Maybe Rod could have paid a little more, but Rod wouldn't have.
Rod
Scurvy Dogs

Re: Third Attempt at some Free Agency Free Analysis

Reply #3 –
This is good stuff, thanks for putting it together.

I was thinking about something. I wonder what the most any one team has spent in one week in FA? I thought of it when I noticed the Rattlers just made $27 mill worth of bids this week. Those are just bids however and could get raised. I spent $25 mill last week. But I have no idea what the record is...
Rod
Scurvy Dogs

Re: Third Attempt at some Free Agency Free Analysis

Reply #4 –
I'm pretty sure it was shattered.  The most spent by EVERYONE in a week was about $50m before last week.
Darrell
River City Cutthroats