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Topic: 2021 Mutiny Season? (Read 2088 times) previous topic - next topic

2021 Mutiny Season?

I've been thinking about this lately and since Rod posted his poll figured I'd throw it out there. 

Has there been any discussion among the CO about what the 2021 MSB season might look like?  Are we going to match MLB for number of games played? Expand playing time limits to be able to play out a full season in MSB? If there is no MLB this year are we going to figure out a substitute season for MLBs 2020 season to still be able to play MSB?  Maybe reuse the 2019 season stats? Go to one of the past season options for DMB  for a season?  And if that happens, what about contracts?  Just lose a year on all the contracts beyond 2020?  Add a year onto the contracts to make up for the lost year? Obviously there are a lot of questions out there and we can't make any decisions until we actually know what happens with real life, but depending on how we handle things, especially in terms of contracts, it could influence in season trades this year.
Brandon Crews
Grants Pass Brewers

Re: 2021 Mutiny Season?

Reply #1 –
While not a CO, I can tell you what I did in the fantasy leagues I was playing in that used the 1994 and 1995 seasons (it is crazy to think I've been doing these fantasy leagues since 1994). For those seasons, we just prorated the playing time upwards to match it so that a Cal Ripken type of player could play the entire schedule. So, for example, if let's say they get in 82 real life games, we would have scaled up the playing time from 105% to 210%. Hopefully there are games, since that seems like the easiest solution to the problem.

Of course, if there isn't a season, who knows. But again, hopefully that won't be the case.
Jason
Ankeny ACLs

"I'm pissed off now, Jobu. Look, I go to you. I stick up for you. You no help me now. I say 'F#@& you Jobu', I do it myself."
-Pedro Cerrano, Major League

Re: 2021 Mutiny Season?

Reply #2 –
I think we’re all wondering the same thing. The truth is we don’t have any idea what a 2020 MLB season will look like, assuming there even is one. Or if it starts, could another outbreak put its completion in jeopardy? There’s just way too much unknown at this point.

We’ll do “something”. I assure you of that. What that will be is anyone’s guess though.
Rod
Scurvy Dogs

Re: 2021 Mutiny Season?

Reply #3 –
The main thing I'm concerned about right now is the contract issue.  For example, I have a 2021 contract that at the start of the season I was likely to look to include in any midseason deals.  If there is no MLB this season, or virtually none due to a second shutdown, does he still have value beyond this year for whatever team I might trade him to?  I have no problem if the answer right now is "I have no idea."  Trust me, as a business owner I have thought way too much for my liking lately.  Just figured I'd pose the question in case the extreme had been discussed.  I mean I'm going to have to try something to catch that juggernaut in Ankeny.
Brandon Crews
Grants Pass Brewers

Re: 2021 Mutiny Season?

Reply #4 –
Quote from: BrewOR – on
The main thing I'm concerned about right now is the contract issue.  For example, I have a 2021 contract that at the start of the season I was likely to look to include in any midseason deals.  If there is no MLB this season, or virtually none due to a second shutdown, does he still have value beyond this year for whatever team I might trade him to?  I have no problem if the answer right now is "I have no idea."  Trust me, as a business owner I have thought way too much for my liking lately.  Just figured I'd pose the question in case the extreme had been discussed.  I mean I'm going to have to try something to catch that juggernaut in Ankeny.

We do have some ideas.  However, my thought was that we'd wait until mid-June and there is more information out there before making any decisions.  At that point, we'd put it out there for discussion.  If it's looking like we have no 2021 season, we have some hard decisions to make and certainly comments like yours do present some significant difficulties.  There is always the possibility that we just run a sim again next year using this year's stats, but where we advance everyone's contract year.  Yes, you would know going into a trade exactly how a player will perform during the remainder of the season.  That said, DMB introduces enough variability that it may work.

I don't mean to start the full-on discussion yet though.  It's too early and so much could happen in the meantime.
David
Phoenix Miners

Re: 2021 Mutiny Season?

Reply #5 –
Ug, I know I took flyers on a number of people having a reasonable year this year so I could be a little more competitive next year (after which the major look of the team will hopefully change for the better).

Say there isn't a season; is there any chance DMB will come up with an interesting database/solution to use? Such as adjusting stats based on some projection model like steamer then simming a year and adjusting again. Or do something where they weight previous years higher for each player so it isn't an identical database again?

I imagine they have a forum. Anyone watching it? Someone will have a good idea.
Craig
Ann Arbor Landlubbers

Re: 2021 Mutiny Season?

Reply #6 –
They do have a 2020 projection disk available for purchase. $24.95

DMB Projections
Rod
Scurvy Dogs

Re: 2021 Mutiny Season?

Reply #7 –
I've always been interested in the projections seasons.  I've pondered whether using a projection disk for our league could keep the season going.  Two seasons a year?

But I digress...

If no season, I think a projection disk would be a good alternative.

But until we know what's happening, it's hard to say.
Matt
Mother Lode Argonauts

Re: 2021 Mutiny Season?

Reply #8 –
Using the projection season seems like the least amount of work for the CO, and a decent solution IF there's no baseball for 2020.  If we have even 80 games, I'm a fan of prorating stats (raise the PTL %) out to 162 games.
Kyle - 2008, 2015, 2019 MSB Champion

Re: 2021 Mutiny Season?

Reply #9 –
Quote from: dsj421 – on
We do have some ideas.  However, my thought was that we'd wait until mid-June and there is more information out there before making any decisions.  At that point, we'd put it out there for discussion.  If it's looking like we have no 2021 season, we have some hard decisions to make and certainly comments like yours do present some significant difficulties.  There is always the possibility that we just run a sim again next year using this year's stats, but where we advance everyone's contract year.  Yes, you would know going into a trade exactly how a player will perform during the remainder of the season.  That said, DMB introduces enough variability that it may work.

I don't mean to start the full-on discussion yet though.  It's too early and so much could happen in the meantime.

It's not quite mid-June, but we are getting close and two teams have been public about making trades. It really does change things.

We are about two weeks from the 50% prorated salary of July 1 in MSB season.
Brent A. Brown
Chicago Rum Runners
President of Baseball Operations

World Series Champions
CJWL - 2017 (Grinders)

LCS
NABL-AL 2018 (Louisville Bats)

Re: 2021 Mutiny Season?

Reply #10 –
I'm gonna have to agree with Brent here.  We might need to come up with a couple plans: One for if they play games at all.  And one if they don't.

My vote for if they play games at all would be to prorate out their stats to 162 games and play a full MSB season.  And my vote for if they play NO games at all would be to use the each player's 2019 stats all over again.
Kyle - 2008, 2015, 2019 MSB Champion

Re: 2021 Mutiny Season?

Reply #11 –
I'd prefer to use a projections disk for 2020 than the same 2019 stats but I am in agreement on prorating the season if they play games at all.
Matt
Mother Lode Argonauts

Re: 2021 Mutiny Season?

Reply #13 –
Further involved, what about contracts?

Will rookie stats or players that were under the rookie threshold be treated as usual?
Brent A. Brown
Chicago Rum Runners
President of Baseball Operations

World Series Champions
CJWL - 2017 (Grinders)

LCS
NABL-AL 2018 (Louisville Bats)

Re: 2021 Mutiny Season?

Reply #14 –
Quote from: Rum Runners – on
Further involved, what about contracts?

Will rookie stats or players that were under the rookie threshold be treated as usual?

Honestly, it seems a bit premature to answer your above question given the MLBPA's statements on Friday.  However my guess is that regardless of whether we used the projected season or modified the PTL, we would attempt to keep the rules running as smoothly as we could.  If MLB actually plays games, let's see whether they do anything to modify rookie rules (which I doubt they will).  If they do, maybe we implement theirs for 2021.  But at that time, I do not think it is a valuable or meaningful use of anyone's time to speculate on the unknown.  For me, I am going to do my best to improve my team this year without any clear understanding of how I'll look in 2021.  A 50 game season could result in a couple of significant outlier seasons - perhaps the first .400+ season in forever with a huge asterisk attached to it.
David
Phoenix Miners