Is it just me, or...

Topic: Is it just me, or... (Read 2912 times) previous topic - next topic

Is it just me, or...

July 28, 2017, 07:55:26 PM

... do the rest of you guys feel the same way I do when you're done drafting? I feel like I have the best system in the league, and all my guys are gonna make it to the show, win Cy Young awards and MVPs, and I'm gonna really struggle in deciding who to grant my ICE's to each and every off-season. Am I alone in that?

Funny how it doesn't work out that way.

Re: Is it just me, or...

Reply #1 – July 29, 2017, 09:51:51 AM

I mostly feel dazed and confused.

Re: Is it just me, or...

Reply #2 – July 29, 2017, 07:31:38 PM

It's in my personality that I hate to lose, but in winning there is no joy, only relief. Relief that I didn't screw it up, run into a bad beat, or some other impediment that prevented success. I wish it wasn't like that, but it is. Thus, I walk away from these drafts cautiously optimistic that out of every 10 picks I can get 3 or 4 of those guys to contribute somewhere down the line, but never that I killed it. Way too much volatility in prospecting to think otherwise, but it sure is fun to try.

Re: Is it just me, or...

Reply #3 – July 29, 2017, 11:00:12 PM

Now Chris makes me want to go through everyone's roster history to see their success rate.
success rate = significant contribution

I drafted horribly in MSB in my first two years. Absolutely horrible.
Arismendy Alcantara, CHC, MI
Luis Sardinas, TEX, SS
Edwardo Rofriguez, BAL, LHP
Luke Jackson, TEX, RHP
Alex Jackson, OF, SEA
Daniel Norris, SP, TOR
Jose Peraza, SS
Dalton Pompey, OF, TOR
Michael Chavis
Derek Hill

Re: Is it just me, or...

Reply #4 – July 30, 2017, 07:43:05 AM

Kyle, I did have the best draft and have the best system. You must be second best.

I tend to lean towards Kyle on this though the one(s) that got away (I waited to long to pick) tend to haunt me for years.

Re: Is it just me, or...

Reply #5 – July 30, 2017, 10:03:09 AM

Quote from: dgonser – on July 29, 2017, 11:00:12 PM

Now Chris makes me want to go through everyone's roster history to see their success rate.
success rate = significant contribution

I drafted horribly in MSB in my first two years. Absolutely horrible.
Arismendy Alcantara, CHC, MI
Luis Sardinas, TEX, SS
Edwardo Rofriguez, BAL, LHP
Luke Jackson, TEX, RHP
Alex Jackson, OF, SEA
Daniel Norris, SP, TOR
Jose Peraza, SS
Dalton Pompey, OF, TOR
Michael Chavis
Derek Hill

So much of this is a matter of perception. I don't think that is so bad.

E-Rod, Norris and Peraza are what I would consider productive, or very close to being so. Chavis has had a huge rebound season now that he is healthy and the Braves may be on the verge of unlocking Alex Jackson, if he can stay a catcher, even better. Alcantara stalled out in AAA, but when you took him, he looked to be a 15/15 2nd basemen with a solid average and good glove. Injuries have ruined Pompey, and I had a number of 'shares' of him in other leagues. I was a believer at the time. I whiffed on him and Anthony Gose.

Point is, you already have 3, and maybe a few more in a couple years, big league regulars out of a group of players you were 'meh' on. If you don't consider Peraza a regular, once Cozart's deal runs out at the end of 2017, he will be and with the Tigers starting to rebuild, Norris (if healthy) will be a part of that. We have to give these guys at least 5 years after we pick them to judge, and in some cases even longer.

Re: Is it just me, or...

Reply #6 – July 30, 2017, 10:16:04 AM

Quote from: thebuland – on July 30, 2017, 07:43:05 AM

I tend to lean towards Kyle on this though the one(s) that got away (I waited to long to pick) tend to haunt me for years.

I forgot to mention this in my first post, but this 100%!!! It's not only about researching and finding the guys we want, but knowing (deciding) when the pull the trigger on them.

I am guilty many times over of trying to push the lesser known, but more desirable (to me) prospect, another round in order to try and sneak them through and get both. Watching that player get selected soon after is maddening. Now if someone asked me what they should do in that scenario, the advice I always give is if you want the player, take them when you have the chance. Do I listen to that? No, of course not.

Full disclosure: The two players for me this year where that happened - Yordan Alvarez and Lucas Erceg. Erceg got some good pub at the end of last year, but given a down year in 2017 I kept pushing him and pushing him until finally (I believe) the ACL's grabbed him.

Re: Is it just me, or...

Reply #7 – July 30, 2017, 01:22:48 PM

It's like this for me as well, you're not alone @monsooner. I have to check on my minors system often to keep track of players and their status. Now is an important time to do that. Players get promoted, recently drafted guys have played enough games to make a small judgement on their success.

Re: Is it just me, or...

Reply #8 – July 30, 2017, 04:05:37 PM

Yeah for some of these guys you hold on to them forever and teen just when they are getting good their ICE runs out.

I have to go back and find my post where I gave Puig an ICE. I'm pretty sure I stated that I'd regret giving it to him over Martinez.

Re: Is it just me, or...

Reply #9 – July 31, 2017, 12:20:47 AM

Good stuff, guys.

Honestly, this year was the first in memory where I truly didn't react out loud with a pick I waited too long on (save DJ Peters, but that's because he's been hot, and I certainly didn't expect Rod to get him). I'm sure I missed some guys, and reached a few times (due in large part to what Chris is talking about: if you want a guy, get him) but with the amount of studying I had to do - and quite different type of study than in years past due to the new rules - I really feel very good about my system now. I'm more than positive I had the worst system the last couple years due to trades and promotions, and just being thin. Now, I'm really looking forward to following some of the teenagers I got, as well as looking forward to some first-time call-ups between now and September.

Re: Is it just me, or...

Reply #10 – July 31, 2017, 06:45:55 AM

I always feel pretty good about my drafts and think I've done well. What surprises me is the variance in opinions. I see guys other teams draft and wonder what they see in the player and I'm sure the reverse of that is true too. When I make a pick I hear people laughing at my choice and thinking "great, now xxx is still available for me to pick".

Re: Is it just me, or...

Reply #11 – July 31, 2017, 10:00:28 AM

Quote from: scubadan – on July 31, 2017, 06:45:55 AM

I always feel pretty good about my drafts and think I've done well. What surprises me is the variance in opinions. I see guys other teams draft and wonder what they see in the player and I'm sure the reverse of that is true too. When I make a pick I hear people laughing at my choice and thinking "great, now xxx is still available for me to pick".

Truth. I remember my very first draft back in 2008. Jair Jurrjens was an under-the-radar guy who exploded on the scene his first season, great peripherals, and a 2.20-something ERA at the time of the draft (110 innings or so). And it wasn't just a standard draft. The league decided to host a conference call for all 16 GMs for rounds 1 and 2. Unfortunately for me, the team I took over went 60-102 the previous season, meaning I had the first pick. I was so green, I wasn't sure taking an unranked player who was proving himself was a good move, but I went ahead and spoke the words, "I'll take Jair Jurrjens." And there was complete silence for the first time since we all got on the phone. For a good 3-4 seconds. Reflexively, I asked, "Was that a dumb pick?" And the gracious draft host (Brendt Crews) says, "Nooo, no, it's cool."

In my defense, it certainly proved to be a very weak draft class. But there WAS this kid picked 5th overall named Gerald Posey.

Re: Is it just me, or...

Reply #12 – July 31, 2017, 10:10:14 AM

Jurrjens came up in the Tiger's system and I had him on a couple teams although I don't think I ever used a #1 for him. Part of the "skill" that comes with experience is gaining a feel for when to tske a player. You lose a few guys from time to time but overall your draft is probably stronger for it.