Just curious... March 21, 2018, 02:00:45 PM ... as to which team is going to represent the Harwell League and lose to the Asterisks come October? Quote Selected
Re: Just curious... Reply #1 – March 21, 2018, 07:05:22 PM Quote from: monsooner – on March 21, 2018, 02:00:45 PM... as to which team is going to represent the Harwell League and lose to the Dogs come October?Fixed it for ya Quote Selected 1 Likes
Re: Just curious... Reply #2 – March 22, 2018, 07:40:31 AM Have you guys started to run and sims? I was wondering what you're seeing. Quote Selected
Re: Just curious... Reply #3 – March 22, 2018, 11:47:37 AM Dan, I have run maybe 4 or 5 sims since the end of the 4th week of FA, and ran just one sim a couple days ago with the latest update. It's hard to get a feel for it since I can really only be sure about my own lineup and rotation. For the most part, DMB does a decent job with pitching rotations and bullpens IF one goes through each team and farms the scrubs. It's the lineups that tend to be poor representations of what each GM will ultimately do (since DMB likes to get eveyrone in on the action based on their playing time, NOT on their numbers), so pitching performances in sims tend to be generous.I *can* tell you - without touching the lineups - that that Kraken, ACLs, Landlubbers, and Cache Hogs surfaced to the top in the Harwell, and the Nomads and Cutthroats sat atop the West, while there's a good 3-way race going between the Koi, Dogs, and Asterisks in the South. Again, ALL of that has to be taken with a grain of salt. For me, sims help me better know how to *use* a hitter (best place in the lineup, really) and play around a bit with bullpen roles. Other than that, they're not all that reliable. Quote Selected
Re: Just curious... Reply #4 – March 22, 2018, 11:56:49 AM Quote...while there's a good 3-way race going between the Koi, Dogs, and Asterisks in the South. You three better enjoy the view from the top while you can... Quote Selected 3 Likes
Re: Just curious... Reply #5 – March 22, 2018, 01:03:43 PM I'll run some pre-season sims as I have time as much to manage playing time in my lineups and pitching staff as well as getting an idea of how the team might perform. It's always amazing how different the results can be if you run some sims AFTER the season has started and everyone has completed their MP's. Quote Selected 1 Likes
Re: Just curious... Reply #6 – March 22, 2018, 04:09:53 PM Quote from: monsooner – on March 22, 2018, 11:47:37 AMAgain, ALL of that has to be taken with a grain of salt. For me, sims help me better know how to *use* a hitter (best place in the lineup, really) and play around a bit with bullpen roles. Other than that, they're not all that reliable.Meh, in my two sims last night, I ended up in 2nd and 3rd place without touching lineups. Your DMB must be broken. Quote Selected 1 Likes
Re: Just curious... Reply #7 – March 22, 2018, 05:50:03 PM For a newbie to the SIM world...do the sims give a pretty good idea of what the real season will look like or is it kind of like spring training and it doesn't really tell much of the story? Quote Selected
Re: Just curious... Reply #8 – March 22, 2018, 06:38:46 PM well, last season, my team came in first quite a bit w/many of the MPs loaded... Quote from: CoyG1988 – on March 22, 2018, 05:50:03 PMFor a newbie to the SIM world...do the sims give a pretty good idea of what the real season will look like or is it kind of like spring training and it doesn't really tell much of the story? Quote Selected
Re: Just curious... Reply #9 – March 23, 2018, 07:14:28 AM Quote from: CoyG1988 – on March 22, 2018, 05:50:03 PMFor a newbie to the SIM world...do the sims give a pretty good idea of what the real season will look like or is it kind of like spring training and it doesn't really tell much of the story?At this point in the season, the sims can probably tell you if you'll be competitive or stink but there's still a lot of room for error. Most teams haven't completed a MP so the computer manager is setting lineups, rotations and bullpen use. Playing times can obviously change the outcomes. The computer manager might be playing a guy with less than a full season of AB's more than playing time restrictions allow while sitting a regular on the bench. This obviously is not a fair representation of true results. Pre-season, I'll run sims to set lineups and help me to see positions that are falling short in playing time available so I know I need to fill those spots. By going through the process of creating these lineups and rotations, I might come to realize things like "Shoot, I'm going to have to play Scrub X a lot more than I thought I was going to have to play him". I also can get a rough feel for whether or not I want to push the chips in to make a run or sell off to help the future.Of course the sims get more accurate after everyone has submitted their MP's. This ends up being at the start of the season and your options to change your team become more limited (trades vs free agency) but can still help me decide whether to push to win or sell off a loser. You have to be cautious though. The sims are truly random and can still have wide variations in their outcomes. I suppose that's why you'll see projection models run thousands of simulations to predict results. But even then they are just projections and outliers happen in real life (or real simulated season I guess). Quote Selected 2 Likes
Re: Just curious... Reply #10 – March 23, 2018, 10:00:04 AM Quote from: CoyG1988 – on March 22, 2018, 05:50:03 PMFor a newbie to the SIM world...do the sims give a pretty good idea of what the real season will look like or is it kind of like spring training and it doesn't really tell much of the story?Coy, I've been playing this game since 2008, and I've run sims around this time of year every single season. But it's not so much so I can see the standings anymore. I can honestly say it almost NEVER works out that way in the end. And now, with 20 teams and the new 105% rule, I'm gonna bet the farm that will continue to be true. The depth teams will need to have to keep up in August and September just makes simming that much more unreliable. Example: This year, 35 of my 40 men will be contributing playing time this season - the most I've ever had. With that many players, DMB really doesn't know how a GM is planning on using 10-15 of those guys, and tries to get everyone to finish the season with the same amount of playing time. But human GMs are gonna push the 105% limits for our best players, and use the scrubs at different times of the year than DMB would, then multiply that by 20 different owners, and the standings become a crapshoot. But that's just me. I know Matt (Nomads, 2-time champ) rarely sims, if at all. That said, like Dan mentioned, I use sims to simply alert me to playing time limits, lineup positions (for a guy I'm torn between the 2-hole and the 6-hole, for example), heck I've even noticed big, consistent differences for whether or not I use a guy in the 7-hole vs. the 8-hole. And of course, bullpen roles - how my relievers do in the various spots. Quote Selected 2 Likes
Re: Just curious... Reply #11 – March 23, 2018, 12:22:25 PM The Asterisks marketing department is ecstatic - their tens of fans have never once posted on the team message board, but this offseason rival GM’s have been commenting on their fan site. Optimism is brewing in the desert that maybe their fans will join in... Quote Selected
Re: Just curious... Reply #12 – March 23, 2018, 12:28:06 PM I would agree, I generally will run a handful of preseason sims but not until the majority (ideally all) of the MP have been received. There’s just too much fluctuation with the computer GM setting up the profiles. There is value to running some sims beforehand to see how your MP is doing in regards to playing time limits though. There probably isn’t a perfect method and we all probably do it slightly differently. Whatever works for you Quote Selected
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