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Topic: Playoff Odds (Read 1165 times) previous topic - next topic

Playoff Odds

After running my sims, here are my playoff odds based on those sims:

Division Winner:
 * ACL - 100%
 * Kraken - 80%
 * Miners - 50%
 * Brewers - 50%
 * Blues - 35%
 * Argonauts - 30%
 * Bums - 15%
 * Sweets - 10%
 * Cutthroats - 10%
 * Rum Runners - 10%
 * Rattlers - 10%

Playoff Qualifier:
 * ACL's - 100%
 * Kraken - 100%
 * Miners - 100%
 * Blues - 100%
 * Rum Runners - 90%
 * Bums - 63%
 * Hogs - 60%
 * Brewers - 55%
 * Rattlers - 50%
 * Argonauts - 30%
 * Cutthroats - 25%
 * Dogs - 13%
 * Sweets - 10%
 * Koi - 3%

There were 5 MP's missing when I ran these sims. Updated MP's could certainly skew these numbers. These sims also didn't factor in playing times. Teams with more depth will probably perform better than teams that have to farm players as the season progresses.
Dan
Brooklyn Kraken

Re: Playoff Odds

Reply #1 –
I don't quite understand the numbers...

The Brewers and Argonauts are 50% and 30% respectively regarding winning their division, but the Sweets have the highest chance of making the playoffs (at 10%!) from that division?  And the numbers for the Rum Runners and Hogs seem a little weird, too.  Did you notice that, Dan?  Is that just a gambling odds glitch or something?
Kyle - 2008, 2015, 2019 MSB Champion

Re: Playoff Odds

Reply #2 –
Quote from: Kyle – on
I don't quite understand the numbers...

The Brewers and Argonauts are 50% and 30% respectively regarding winning their division, but the Sweets have the highest chance of making the playoffs (at 10%!) from that division?  And the numbers for the Rum Runners and Hogs seem a little weird, too.  Did you notice that, Dan?  Is that just a gambling odds glitch or something?

Thanks for catching that Kyle. I missed adding those teams numbers on the original post. It has now been fixed.
Dan
Brooklyn Kraken

Re: Playoff Odds

Reply #3 –
Quote from: Kyle – on
I don't quite understand the numbers...

The Brewers and Argonauts are 50% and 30% respectively regarding winning their division, but the Sweets have the highest chance of making the playoffs (at 10%!) from that division?  And the numbers for the Rum Runners and Hogs seem a little weird, too.  Did you notice that, Dan?  Is that just a gambling odds glitch or something?

Kyle is just upset that the Miners have a higher chance of winning the division.
David
Phoenix Miners