July 1-3

July 04, 2023, 03:50:02 PM

As we head into the ASG I'm going to highlight each division. We'll start with the Frick and do the KML for the next series.

Bums (47-27):
Tied for first place with his brother the Bums dropped one to HGH (4-5) and another to the Kraken (2-7) before winning 10-9 in 10 innings over the Kraken. Not a lot of pitching to right home about in G3 of the set as the teams combined for 33 hits. Anyway, the Bums are lead at the plate by Alonso (.314/.350/.559) with 20 HR who is also on track for 100+ runs and RBI. Stroman is 9-2 with a 2.35 ERA while Holmes is 6-1 with 14 saves.

Brewers (47-27):
Brotherly love at the top of the standings. Brew Crew beat the ACL's 6-1, before dropping two to HGH (2-7 and 3-6). The Brewers started the season 7-12, but since then is by far the best team in the league, going 40-15. Darvish is looking like a potential Cy Young, going 11-2 with a 1.59 ERA while Adam has notched 15 saves. Cron and Altuve are both batting over .300.

Thunder (46-28) 1GB:
After leading the standings early in the season the Thunder have slipped a little going 3-7 in their last 10. But their .622 winnings percentage is still good enough for 3rd in the league. The dropped one to the Tubeman 3-2 (in 14 innings!) before splitting with the ACL's (3-0 and 2-3). Strider is the story here, going 8-1 with a 1.67 ERA, but teammate Manoah isn't far behind going 7-2 with a 1.83 ERA. Finding balance after those two will be the story of the second half.

Argos (45-29) 2GB:
The 4th team in the Frick with a greater than .600 winning percentage is the Argos. They beat the Rougarou 3-0 before splitting with the Tubeman (4-1 and 3-4). Hader is his normal dominating self in the bullpen (0.90 ERA, 17 saves, although he does have a 0-5 record). The biggest question mark is how to replace deGrom in the rotation who had to be pulled from the rotation after his arm literally fell off during a start against Brooklyn on 6/11 and we haven't seen him since. We'll see if they have enough duct tape and super glue in the Mother Lode to have him ready for the postseason.

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I'm separating these four from the rest of the division as right now there is a clear demarcation between them and everyone else.

Sweets (39-35) 8GB:
Sweets take G1 in the set behind an almost no-no from Brieske. Brieske allowed only two Robot walks, but was not allowed to take the mound for the 9th. Come on, he only was at 117 pitches! But with a narrow 1-0 lead I can appreciate wanting to get him his first win. However they dropped the next two games (2-4 and 2-5) to the Rougarou. This is a very good offensive team, lead by McNeill (.323/.366/.409) and Walker (.278/.347/.617 with 20 HR).

Dogs (38-36) 9GB:
After beating the Kraken 3-2, they got hammered by the Landlubbers (6-18 and 4-5). The story here is some underperforming stars. Nick freaking Allen has a higher batting average than Ohtani (.241 vs .236). Ohtani does have 17 HR though. Seager and Varsho are batting below the Mendoza line. On the mound Ohtani has been very good (7-3 with a 2.87 ERA) and just give Diaz the relief award (4-1, 16 saves, 0.31 ERA). But again there are disappointments - Cole for example is 4-6 with a 4.01 ERA.

Miners (34-40) 13GB:
Speaking of disappointments, this was a team many thought was a contender. A win over the Tubeman (2-1), followed by a split with the Robots (3-4 and 8-5). There is hope as the Miners are +7 RF/RA which normally would suggest a > .500 record. Hoskins leads the team at the plate (.264/.329/539 with 17 HR). The pitching has been fine - McClanahan, Peralta, Nola, Perez, Scherzer all have an ERA under 4.

Anglerfish (30-44) 17GB:
They beat the Landlubbers 7-3 before splitting with the Madmen (1-7 and 10-0). Franco (.315/.388/.408) and some part-time players are all batting over .300, the problem here is a lack of power. No one on the roster has double-digit HR and they only have 51 HR as a team.

Koi (29-45) 18GB:
The Koi have lost 5 in a row. Sea Wolves (2-6) and Rattlers (5-8 and 5-6). Bichette leads the offense (.274/.312/.488 with 13 HR) but it gets scary quick. Winker, Aguilar, Sanchez, Stanton are all below the Mendoza line. Woodruff (3.13 ERA) and McKenzie (3.23 ERA) are a solid 1-2 in the rotation.

Auk (26-48) 21GB:
A win over the Madmen (6-4) followed by a split with the Sea Wolves (3-10 and 7-5). A couple guys on the trade block - Pederson (.272/.338/.539 11 HR) and Buxton (.263/.338/.667 with 14 HR) lead the offense. But when your team ERA is approaching 5.00 (4.89 to be exact) it's hard to win ball games in this league. Minor has been brutal - 7.26 ERA with a 3-9 record in 15 starts.

Re: July 1-3

Reply #1 – July 05, 2023, 09:13:41 PM

One of the things that surprised me when I was doing this was how bad the overall offense was. It seemed like every team had multiple players struggling to hit above the mendoza line. Not only that, but most teams had several really good SP and a few lights out RP. Just a gut reaction, I figured we were below our MLB counterparts.

So I decided to do some math...

After the 7/6 games as a league we're hitting a combined .240/.301/.393/.693
Which is basically 2022 Andrew McCutchen crossed with Tommy Pham crossed with Josh Donaldson. Seems like we should be better than that? So now let's check that against MLB.

Baseball Reference - league average MLB player stats averaged to 600AB? .241/.310/.392/.702
That's pretty damn close to us.

Average MLB team stats (not exact science since not every team had the same number of at bats, but it's close enough for this exercise) = .243/.311/.395/.706

By either of these metrics my hypothesis is incorrect. For all practical purposes we're hitting almost exactly what you'd expect us to hit.