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Discussing the Draft

Instead of opining at length within the rounds themselves - especially if the discussion might be more than a few posts - I thought I'd open up this thread. I like discussing what I'm thinking. I won't be giving away secret websites or where I get all my info (and I don't expect anyone else to do that, either!), but it's fun to boast on picks, or give a hard time to others taking your guys literally one pick ahead of you time and again. So... let's discuss!
Kyle - 2008, 2015, 2019 MSB Champion

Re: Discussing the Draft

Reply #1 –
The first "whiff" (that we all missed) that crossed my laptop for this year's draft is Andrew Abbot. Dude has good numbers in the minors the last few years. And he's sporting a 2.35 ERA in 65 IPs (11 starts) for the up-and-coming Reds. If it wasn't for Elly, I think we'd be hearing a lot more about this guy.

I'm just wondering how we all missed this guy! In three seasons in the minors he struck out 271 hitters in 185 innings! And his walk rate was a respectable 3.4 - not bad for a young guy with K stuff.

Did ANYBODY have him on your radar for a late round pick in the past and just decided not to?
Kyle - 2008, 2015, 2019 MSB Champion

Re: Discussing the Draft

Reply #2 –
Quote from: Kyle – on
The first "whiff" (that we all missed) that crossed my laptop for this year's draft is Andrew Abbot. Dude has good numbers in the minors the last few years. And he's sporting a 2.35 ERA in 65 IPs (11 starts) for the up-and-coming Reds. If it wasn't for Elly, I think we'd be hearing a lot more about this guy.
I picked him up in a minor league draft in another league last year, but not this one.  No idea why.

I'm just wondering how we all missed this guy! In three seasons in the minors he struck out 271 hitters in 185 innings! And his walk rate was a respectable 3.4 - not bad for a young guy with K stuff.

Did ANYBODY have him on your radar for a late round pick in the past and just decided not to?

I picked him up in a minor league draft last year in another league.  No idea why not here.  I tend to pick the same players in both places
Jim
Arizona Koi

Re: Discussing the Draft

Reply #3 –
The Reds have the 5th best farm system now, according to MLB. I suppose, since they were out of the top ten (I think) this time last year, a guy like Abbot (who some ranked 10th in their system at the time) would get lost in the shuffle of all the guys they have in front of him making splashes in the show.
Kyle - 2008, 2015, 2019 MSB Champion

Re: Discussing the Draft

Reply #4 –
Another factor is when does weighting of the actual minor league performance stats overtake the weighting given to pedigree of the player by the various rating web pages.   Early on I weight pedigree more but as the draft progresses I chase the actual stats.  
Bob Miller
The Great Auk

Re: Discussing the Draft

Reply #5 –
I'm a huge Reds fan and I totally missed on abbott too.  think we're all using 1op 100 lists and similar, and he just wasn't high on any lists. and like others said, he was way down the Red's list cuz they are so deep.  he's the kind of pitcher who knows how to pitch, but doesn't have amazing 'stuff' so scouts don't like him.

Re: Discussing the Draft

Reply #6 –
I heard Eno Sarris mention in a podcast a BA article discussing MLB success based on draft position. I found the article and thought I'd share the results. Following is average career bWAR based on draft slot:
 * 1-10, 9.8 WAR per player
 * 11-30, 4.7
 * 31-50, 2.5
 * 51-100, 1.7
 * 100-150, 0.9
 * 151-200, 0.7

I suppose we have some advantage compared to a FYPD since we have more data to analyze to see how these players perform against their peers. I guess the bottom line is best of luck to all of us trying to find the next Mike Trout (25th pick), Mookie Betts (172) or Albert Puljos (402).
Dan
Brooklyn Kraken

Re: Discussing the Draft

Reply #9 –
Quote from: Bob Miller – on
I just promoted a player to the 40 man roster to clear up a minor league slot     I think this guy is available and eligible    Cade Marlow  OF  Sea
Question -how does this work?  Does his promoted player get a 2026 contract and a year of current stats is pretty much lost in this season that is near its end?
The stats arent the concern, its loosing a year before they have to be submitted for arbitration.....................
Jim
Arizona Koi

Re: Discussing the Draft

Reply #10 –
That is correct. It’s as if he had been promoted the previous offseason.

So in essence for the cost of 1 less year of rookie eligibility of Toglia Bob gains MiL player of Marlow.
Rod
Scurvy Dogs

Re: Discussing the Draft

Reply #11 –
If I regret losing a year of control of Toglia then I would be very happy as he would have then had a very good 2024 and/or 2025 MLB seasons.   I somehow doubt that will be the case and he gets cut in our Mutiny 2024 or 2025 preseason.   
Bob Miller
The Great Auk

Re: Discussing the Draft

Reply #12 –
Does anybody else see a name picked by another owner and immediately say, "Uhh, WHO?" And then look him up? This draft - perhaps more than any other - that's happened to me at least 2 dozen times.
Kyle - 2008, 2015, 2019 MSB Champion

Re: Discussing the Draft

Reply #14 –
Quote from: Kyle – on
Does anybody else see a name picked by another owner and immediately say, "Uhh, WHO?" And then look him up? This draft - perhaps more than any other - that's happened to me at least 2 dozen times.
Yes, happens to me too. And yes . . . I always go look the player up too!

As much time as I usually devote to the MiL draft and prospects in general, there are still players others find and draft every year I’ve never heard of   Always gives me a renewed respect for the job of the minor league departments of MLB teams.
Brendt Crews
Bako Bums


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