Free Free Agency Analysis

Topic: Free Free Agency Analysis - 2016 Edition (Read 2973 times) previous topic - next topic

Free Free Agency Analysis - 2016 Edition

January 19, 2017, 01:55:17 PM

You get what you pay for.

Average 2016 Winning Bids by Position

C - $1,677,647
1B - $2,362,727
2B - $1,348,750
SS - $725,000
3B - $2,830,000
OF - $4,680,833
DH - $2,870,000
SP - $3,591,207
RP - $1,7969,186

Highest Paid 2016 Contracts by Position

C AJ Pierzynski - $4,800,000
1B Chris Davis - $7,250,000
2B - Logan Forsythe - $4,250,000
SS - Alcides Escobar - $1,750,000
3B - Kyle Seager - $8,000,000
OF - Giancarlo Stanton - $16,200,000
DH - David Ortiz - $7,980,000
SP - Jake Arrietta - $ 14,000,000
RP - Mark Melancon - $6,250,000

Interesting Facts

1. We only had 4 shortstops selected in Free Agency last year.
2. There were only 5 starting pitchers signed for more than $7m.
3. There were only 7 players signed for more than $10m in all of Free Agency.
4. There were only 20 players signed for more than $5m in all of Free Agency.

If I get time I'll throw together some pivot tables and graphs, but in the mean time I'll attach the spreadsheet. Note that I had to pull this data from the old forums so the formatting is a bit weird. In addition I used a macro to convert the salary to a dollar amount. I didn't see any errors but there could be some.

Re: Free Free Agency Analysis - 2016 Edition

Reply #1 – January 19, 2017, 02:55:52 PM

Here is some quick analysis for the results of 2016 Free Agency.

The blue bar is the actual salary cost while the orange and grey lines represent the relative value. You would want the data point for each year to be within the actual cost.

Re: Free Free Agency Analysis - 2016 Edition

Reply #2 – January 20, 2017, 01:41:24 PM

Darrell:

I'm not sure what that means. For Acrual salary (which I presume should be actual), is that MLB salary and the lines are cost in MSB? Because Liriano's numbers seem out of wack - his actual salary in real life was 13.6M in 2016 which isn't reflected by any of those lines or bars.

Re: Free Free Agency Analysis - 2016 Edition

Reply #3 – January 20, 2017, 03:16:10 PM

That's strange. I edited that typo in the original but its not updating.

The blue bar is their actual DMB salary. The 2016 and 2017 lines represent relative value versus MLB production. There should be a third axis on this chart referencing that relative value.

Liriano's salary is $10,000,000. In 2016 that was great value.
84 FIP-
.72 HR/9
1.21 WHIP
etc.

But in 2017 those numbers went to
119 FIP-
1.44 HR/9
1.48 WHIP
etc.

There is little doubt that @profjason and @tigersfancj and others with actual skill and knowledge in this area would do this VERY differently, but every time I send an intake for DMB analysis to my corporate Strategic Analysis team I don't receive an appropriate response.

Re: Free Free Agency Analysis - 2016 Edition

Reply #4 – January 20, 2017, 09:00:06 PM

Okay I might change the years from 2016 and 2017 to 2015 and 2016 as it really is a reference to those real life seasons (and their impact on the 2016 and 2017 DMB seasons).

Also, without that third axis, the graph currently makes it appear like you are establishing a dollar value relative to their production in those years. So I read it as Liriano being worth $25 million in 2017, which didn't make any sense.

Re: Free Free Agency Analysis - 2016 Edition

Reply #5 – January 20, 2017, 09:33:37 PM

Quote from: dgonser – on January 20, 2017, 03:16:10 PM

There is little doubt that @profjason and @tigersfancj and others with actual skill and knowledge in this area would do this VERY differently, but every time I send an intake for DMB analysis to my corporate Strategic Analysis team I don't receive an appropriate response.

Here is the analytics department for the ACLs. Please do not think we have a plan, we don't want anyone to know that.

Re: Free Free Agency Analysis - 2016 Edition

Reply #6 – January 20, 2017, 10:09:18 PM

I hacked Sweet's servers and found this formula: Y = C + I + G + (X − M)!!!!!

Re: Free Free Agency Analysis - 2016 Edition

Reply #7 – January 20, 2017, 10:20:17 PM

Quote from: profjason – on January 20, 2017, 09:33:37 PM

Quote from: dgonser – on January 20, 2017, 03:16:10 PM
There is little doubt that @profjason and @tigersfancj and others with actual skill and knowledge in this area would do this VERY differently, but every time I send an intake for DMB analysis to my corporate Strategic Analysis team I don't receive an appropriate response.

I'm laughing inside and out, that is funny right there.

Here is the analytics department for the ACLs. Please do not think we have a plan, we don't want anyone to know that.

Re: Free Free Agency Analysis - 2016 Edition

Reply #8 – January 21, 2017, 12:17:39 PM

It's actually Y = C + I + G + (X * M), but who's counting...

Re: Free Free Agency Analysis - 2016 Edition

Reply #9 – January 21, 2017, 03:04:08 PM

Quote from: Sweets – on January 21, 2017, 12:17:39 PM

It's actually Y = C + I + G + (X * M), but who's counting...

I can tell who had a problem in my Principles of Macroeconomics course.

Re: Free Free Agency Analysis - 2016 Edition

Reply #10 – February 02, 2017, 12:58:41 PM

Quote from: dgonser – on January 20, 2017, 03:16:10 PM

That's strange. I edited that typo in the original but its not updating.

The blue bar is their actual DMB salary. The 2016 and 2017 lines represent relative value versus MLB production. There should be a third axis on this chart referencing that relative value.

Liriano's salary is $10,000,000. In 2016 that was great value.
84 FIP-
.72 HR/9
1.21 WHIP
etc.

But in 2017 those numbers went to
119 FIP-
1.44 HR/9
1.48 WHIP
etc.

There is little doubt that @profjason and @tigersfancj and others with actual skill and knowledge in this area would do this VERY differently, but every time I send an intake for DMB analysis to my corporate Strategic Analysis team I don't receive an appropriate response.

Thanks for the reminder about Liriano!!!