Hey guys,
Just a question on how you all evaluate players in MSB, particularly. I'm curious about the perceived value for the 3 2Bmen that were available in Week 3, Kinsler, Kipnis, and Dozier.
Kinsler just signed for $4.25M, and in another league I'm in, I signed him for a measly $3.5M (for the most part, players tend to sign for very similar values year in and year out in MSB and this other league [SCRUBS]). I outbid the next bidder by $3M when Kinsler was first posted, and nobody bid me up.
Yet, Kipnis (about to close, perhaps, for $7M) and Dozier ($8.25M) are perceived to be of MUCH higher value than Kinsler.
In my opinion, Kinsler is worth more than Kipnis, straight up, even considering the age factor (Kinsler is 34, Kipnis, 30). Yes, Dozier has 13 more homers than Kinsler, so I can see him being worth maybe 10-15% more, but when you take into account his FR defense (Kinsler is EX), I don't see the 200% hike.
My question is this: with all 3 available in the same week, I expected all 3 to go for around the same amount. Yet Kinsler closed tonight, at a strikingly lower number compared to the other two.
I'd love to discuss this. Tell me what I'm missing, because I think the Bombers just scored the best signing of Free Agency, to date.
It has to be age related and if we are fantasy players, we think about those numbers and less about defense. You point out defense and that is a great point.
A GM might also consider his park factor and lineup needs. Maybe Dozier fits as a DH and platoon partner at 2B. His defense is only a liability part of the time, I would say less than a quarter in this scenario.
This reminds me of a scene from the Last Waltz. If you haven't seen it it's the Band's goodbye concert and they bring out the best artists of those times. It's amazing and has to be one of the best music documentaries ever made.
Anyways, with in the doc one of the Band members (Levon Helm) starts talking about New York. He calls it an "adult portion" and goes on about it kicking the band members butts but they keep coming back and it gets better and better. Another member (Rick Danko) starts talking about the women. The original guy talking about New York sort of leans back as if trying to escape the camera and says "I didn't think we were supposed to talk about that".
I probably lose the point in that poor recollection of that story but what I am trying to say is I always get a little funny in talking too much about how I see players. It ain't proprietary information by any stretch, but I tend to like to keep it close to vest. Especially when I still have skin in the game and in this case I am still involved with the only one of the 3 to not sign.
So I probably will share a little once things get finalized but for now I will just leave you with that funny story and encourage you to watch the real thing cause I do that story no justice and I didn't even mention the best line of the story which comes from Richard Manuel. Check it out!
True. Didn't think about the park factor, for those who have chosen parks other than close-to-neutral for strategic purposes.
On the defense topic, I think defense up the middle (C, 2B, SS, CF) are the most crucial pieces to a team's D. So having a guy like Kinsler, who can mash, get on base, and play EX defense at a key position... that's high value in my book.
Totally understand, Matt. And that's hilarious - sounds like my kind of documentary to watch.
I am kinda kicking myself right now... I went with the Andrus trade and brought Diaz ,to move one of them to 2B, figuring all three 2B would be $7-$9M range. Didn't want to spend that much on 2B or get caught in a bidding war cause need to spend money other places.
Well thank you. That said, given that I've bid Longoria up to $6.5M and he's heading into silent auction, I view Chris' signing of Todd Frazier for $3M in the same light.
The Kinsler signing is crazy to me! I had wrote off re-signing him and made other plans but couldn't help but bid a few times because he is way better than what I have (and what almost anyone has). Ultimately he is not in my division so I let him go and kept on course.
However, if I knew at the beginning of FA what I know now I would have done things differently. It's my first FA though and there is always a lot to learn about a league and its tendencies. So far I have to conclude that few people value 2B or 3B but I am sure it changes from year to year.
The players union needs to stand up for batters though. Pitchers are running the show!
I'm with Matt on this. While I doubt I'm ahead of any GM (in fact I'm pretty sure I'm behind) in regards to valuing players I've struggled with how much to ask versus how much to share with regards to specific.
That said, Kinsler is what 35? vs. Kipnis and Dozier are 29. That alone is enough for me to bid 50% less on a player unless they are a slugger/dh type.
I'm with Brian and Dan. And Dan, it's my 10th season in MSB, and I still haven't consistently or accurately figured out player values from year to year!
Before Free Agency this year, I took a look at the 2Bmen available and decided they'd all go above Ben Zobrist, for whom I traded for $6.5M. Had I known Kinsler could be had for $4.5M (perhaps, who knows how far David was willing to go?), I'd have stood pat. The silver lining, of course, is that Zobrist is a 2017, so I get that $6.5M back right quick. In fact, I've got nearly $40M coming off the books in 2017 contract at the end of the year, so I'm not complaining too badly. :)
I fully understand, and am not hoping GMs share any secrets regarding player evaluation. Just thought the value discrepancy was curious with the numbers so similar.
Kinsler turns 35 in late June. He's signed through this season with a very team-friendly option for 2018. He'll start 2018 at still just 36 years old. So for 3 years, I personally didn't see the age difference being a factor with the other two being a bit less consistent year to year so far. Then again, I tend to sign older players. In fact, I wonder - over the years - how many times I've had the oldest (average age) roster in MSB. So there's that.
Oh, and Kipnis and Dozier are closer to 30, actually. They're only 4.5 years younger, not 6.
I had the order as Carpenter, Dozier, Kipnis and Kinsler. All have good qualities and I would have been fine with any of them but I had my preferences. Dozier and Kipnis were close in my book and I am a believer that Dozier is on the upswing. I probably easily could flip them when I thinking of my teams needs.
Kinsler had a power surge this year but if you look at his numbers over the past few years I read them as declining power. I don't know what this year means but seeing as he is 34 I'm more inclined to believe it's an aberration. He plays excellent defense and that is a huge plus. He's 34.
Dozier has the most power of the group and I tend to see more of an upwards trend for him. I definitely think 42 homers was a ridiculous aberration but I think he is a player that will fit well near the middle of a lineup for the next few years. I was shocked by his defensive listing. I anticipated him being at least average from all that I had read. Note: as a Dodger fan I did my homework and honestly I wasn't thrilled with what I thought it would cost to trade for him. I don't think he has a great hit tool. I don't care about average that much but it impacts how often he gets on base. His obp is decent but not good enough to make up for the poor batting average in my eyes. However his year was so good I had to put him at second. He's 29.
When looking at the last 4-5 years Kipnis has the most years above .800 OPS of the group. That comes more from obp more than slugging. This year he seemed to try for more power and it hurt him but he still managed an ops over .800. His splits are wildly inconsistent which makes me nervous when planning a roster that requires thinking a year or two ahead. His defense improved greatly this year though I am not sure that will hold. He's 29.
So that's the players. Then I look at my team needs. I was hoping for a lefty who could help balance my lineup. I wasn't concerned about power as much as finding a guy who could fit a little more at the top of my lineup. While this may sound like revisionist history (after signing Kipnis this morning) I starting thinking a bit about Free Agency in August/September and Kipnis was a player I liked who I thought was signable. Some of that probably had to do with the fact I did not expect to have the money to acquire Carpenter or Dozier.
Park factors some for me but because I have found those factors can swing from year to year I don't put a lot of stock in it. But I did think that this year lefty power is down in Target Field and Kipnis would have been nice as power isn't usually his game. I also thought Carpenter had such a nice obp that he would been fine and then Kinsler and Dozier come for the right which would have played to my parks ratings.
The hitting market was cheaper than I expected probably due to focusing so much of the abundance and quality of pitching. So I took at shot on Carpenter and Dozier because I thought they were bargains. Maybe not in Free Agency this year but in value overall.
That's my two cents. Show's a super basic look at how my brains works in evaluating players. Very happy to get Kipnis at a price which was lower than I would have expected when I started planning for free agency and I think the price will prove to be a good deal in subsequent years. Of course at the price Kinsler went for that is quite a bargain although I think there were some even better deals.
We could be having the same conversation about pitchers. Jason stole Colon and Kennedy if we're just looking at their 2016 performance in relation to what other 2016 performances cost. But I guess this depends what metric you're using to measure their 2016 performance and whether or not that metric has ANY bearing to DMB.
Save for Altuve, Donaldson and a bit of a surprise with Belt, I think offensive prices are down across the board, as pitching, well, yeah, you see what pitching has become – especially front line pitching and relief. Relief, save for a few guys, is the most volatile year-over-year, and the price for it has really jumped.
I do think Kinsler was a steal. However, there are some things to note. For starters the EX is not just a single defensive rating, you need to factor in the error rating as well. The EX is his range with a couple other things mixed in as well. You can have EX or VG range, but have a higher than normal error rating. I had Bryce Harper last year with a VG range factor and a north of 150 error rating. Meaning he will get to a lot more balls than others, but will make more than the average amount of errors while getting to them. I don’t have the DMB rating in front of me, but I believe Kinsler is going to do well in that area as well - he has always been a pretty good defender, and it has improved as he has gotten older.
How I would rate them?
Offensively:
Carpenter
Kipnis
Kinsler
Dozier
Defensively:
Kinsler
Kipnis
Dozier
Carpenter
Overall:
Kipnis
Kinsler
Carpenter
Dozier
Some surface level opinion/analysis:
If you squint a bit, how much different is Dozier than Dan Uggla at the same age? Twins needed to move him this off-season, I think they will regret that they didn’t. Love Carpenter’s offense, his surge in power, his ability to get on base, that he bats lefty, but he is the worst defender of the bunch and might just end up at 1B going forward – I don’t want to pay to find out. If I knew he would have 2B qualification for the length of his contract, I may rethink this a bit. Kinsler is the best defender of the group and has aged very well. He is 5 years (4yr 10 mon) older than Kipnis, but his power surge last year was an outlier and just came off 4 straight years with an OPS under .800 OPS prior to this one. Still a good offensive player, but not what he was last year. I think Kipnis provides the best balance of the group. He is a good defender, carries a great OBP year to year, has enough power/speed to keep up with Kinsler, and is that much younger. They are very close, but he deserves the bigger contract in a vacuum.
Now, when looking at the prices paid for these guys, even with the age factored in, Kinsler is a bargain no question. Especially when you consider he has 1 statistical year of the 3 already in the bank. There were a number of good bargains out there on the offensive side thus far.
Fascinating analysis Chris. I definitely like Chris's evaluation of Kipnis and I hope you're right. I look at him similarly. However, I definitely look at Dozier differently. I think they have similar value depending on your needs. The stats may look a little Uggla like but I don't see the same player. Doziers a far better athlete and I don't think power is his only game.
I guess Carpenters defense doesn't bother me all that much. The bat more than makes up for it and his positional flexibility is nice. I think he will move primarily to 1st this year. But I was pretty confident he'd get enough playing time at the other positions to qualify.
Totally spaced on Altuve. What a year for second basemen!
Interesting read on everyone's thought patterns. I may be the odd duck here but I rated Kinsler as the best of the three. Perhaps it's my Tigers bias. To tell you how biased that thought process was, I targeted Kinsler ahead of Altuve but that's only be because I had a fair idea how high Altuve was going to go.
Sure, Kinsler had a power surge last year that may go away but the same could probably be said of just every 2B last year. I see Dozier and Kinsler as very similar offensively but Kinlser's defense is much better. I do think Kinsler has more risk in a three year contract due to his age and his tendency to have up and down seasonal swings. Perhaps it came down to whether a team was looking to win this season or looking for long term production.
I was in the bidding on Kinsler and would have bid him higher but ran out of cap space.
I just threw up in my mouth at the Dozier/Uggla comparison.
While I don't see Uggla myself, I'm more than willing to accept Chris being right on that one if that makes him also right about Kipnis. Sorry Rod! Nomads forever!
Matt - what you said about Dozier and Uggla got me thinking. I agree with you that they are not the same player, don't look the same, Dozier is more athletic.
What I should have added when I made that comparison was that you have to remove the 'eye test' for that - hence my squint comment..lol
When it comes to DMB, I can't imagine that stuff is factored in. So, yes, if you an I are in a school yard picking teams and it's Dozier and Uggla (at 29-30) sitting there to be picked. I am picking Dozier, based on what I can see, but DMB sees only numbers.
So let's take Uggla from 27-29, since Dozier is only 29 now.
Dozier (3 yr avg Avg/R/HR/RBI/SB )
.249/105/31/82/17
Uggla (3 yr avg Avg/R/HR/RBI/SB)
.249/98/31/90/3
That is pretty damn close.... lol
Now for defense, taking dWar and Fielding % from BR's site.
Uggla in those three years -1.2/0.7/-0.9 -- 3yr fielding % is .981
Dozier in the last 3 years 0.7/0.0/0.8 -- 3 yr fielding % is .986
Dozier is better here, but not dramatically.
Again, not terribly sophisticated. In this day and age of advanced metrics, most of what I offer is below basic. However, I am just going to grab what I can in 15 min, so here you are.
:o I hear Rod vomiting again.
Totally agree the numbers are eerily similar. More Rod vomiting.
I just mentioned athleticism because I think that plays a big part in whether those numbers can be repeated in his 30th and 31st year. Around that time in Ugglas career he hit the wall, splattered, then burned, then blew away, then hit an even harder wall around age 32. I think based on Doziers athleticism he is far more likely to be the Dozier of the last three years than the Uggla of the last three years.
Shut the toilet seat Rod. I think you're going to be okay. :-X
I'm really fascinated by the differences in our evaluations. We're all looking at the same numbers but our brains definitely spit out some different answers. I found it particularly interesting that while I completely agreed with Chris about Kipnis his ranking of the 4 players was practically the opposite of my list. So interesting.
Thus me starting the thread. I appreciate you all jumping in - it's fascinating to me how players are evaluated from one GM to another.
You are also forgetting about Robbie Cano
ok. This doesn't settle anything in regards to how each of us value players. But since there was so much debate over these 2b I figured I would run a simulation and see what happens. Typically you would want to do this more than once but I didn't. So take any and all results with a huge grain of salt.
Team: 2b forever
RF: Jose Ramirez
LF: Jose Altuve
1b: Matt Carpenter
DH: Brian Dozier
3b: Robbie Cano
SS: Ian Kinsler
2b: Jason Kipnis
CF: Sean Rodriguez
C: Salvador Perez (I didn't think it was fair to have one of these 2b catch, that could have impacted their batting)
b: Russell Martin, Adrian Beltre, Nori Aoki, Adam Jones, JD Martinez
SP: Chris Sale, Madison Bumgarner, Yu Darvish, Jon Lester, Corey Kluber
C: Cam Bedrosian
RP: Boone Logan, Mauricio Cabrera, Brad Hand, Pedro Strop, Carlos Torres
Team: Washington Generals
SS: Elvis Andrus
CF: Charlie Blackmon
3b: Josh Donaldson
LF: Mark Trumbo
RF: Curtis Granderson
DH: Edwin Encarnacion
1b: Brandon Belt
2b: Hernan Perez
C: Brian McCann
b: Sandy Leon, Mike Napoli, Dee Gordon, Freddy Galvis, Todd Frazier
SP: Clayton Kershaw, Max Scherzer, Wade Miley, Scott Kazmir, Anibal Sanchez
C: Zach Britton
RP: Aroldis Chapman, Craig Kimbrel, Jeuryls Familia, Jeanmar Gomez, Jake McGee
I wanted to pick two of the best SP on the market and couple them with some well, cheaper alternatives to round out the rotation for the Generals to get a good sample size for the 2b. So probably a big advantage for Team 2b in rotation. But the Generals bullpen I figured would be more than up to the task, that's 4 lights out closers.
Predictions on who had the better record H2H over 162 games before I give you some stats?
Cano too. 9.5M
Here's another viewpoint. Mike Petriello has been doing top 10's for positions and here is his ranking of 2bmen. Pretty cool to see him doing big things as he once was in our league. He has Carpenter as a 1b btw.
http://m.mlb.com/news/article/213164152/jose-altuve-tops-top-10-second-basemen-in-2017/
Cool Rod! I'm going to vote for the Generals but I'd guess it's pretty close.
2b Forever had a record of 88-74 over the Generals.
Kershaw did his part (17-9 2.26 ERA) but Scherzer didn't (12-13 4.05 ERA) while Miley, Kazmir, and Sanchez were pretty awful. That great bullpen doesn't do much good if you can't get a lead to protect.
I won't bother everyone with all the stats, but here's a breakdown of the 2b (which was kind of the whole point of this exercise). All games were played in the Neutral Park, so no park factors were involved. Also, a lot of this is dependent on where they batted in the lineup and stuff. So if you want to argue with any or all of the lineup or roster constructs - fair game (for example, I didn't realize until afterwards that I didn't have any backup OF for the Generals). You are more than welcome to redo any of my work and tweak it as you see fit. And again, I only ran the sim once. I would expect some level of standard deviation if I ran the sim several times.
Ramirez = .289/.338/.394 (.310/.348/.433 and .262/.326/.346 LHP/RHP splits), 51 doubles, 4 HR, 33 SB
Altuve = .325/.371/.483 (.301/.351/.438 and .351/.394/.532), 43 doubles, 20 HR, 43 SB
Carpenter = .225/.325/.360 (.222/.288/.283 and .229/.370/.469), 31 doubles, 15 HR, 1 SB
Dozier = .217/.311/.423 (.256/.374/.518 and .176/.236/.320), 20 doubles, 29 HR, 7 SB
Cano = .266/.328/.433 (.237/.294/.320 and .302/.371/.575), 23 doubles, 22 HR, 0 SB
Kinsler = .272/.324/.417 (.292/.363/.455 and .247/.274/.371) 22 doubles, 19 HR, 9 SB
Kipnis = .288/.361/.451 (.264/.322/.395 and .321/.410/.528) 47 doubles, 12 HR, 11 SB
2B Forever is my vote. I feel like if I were able to control the Generals, and bring that bullpen after the 5th, when Kershaw and Scherzer aren't out there, maybe some magic could happen. That said, I feel like those other 3 are going to get tagged to the point where the bullpen won't matter.
The 2B Forever rotation is ridiculous, but 3 of them are LH. I am curious to see if E5, Trumbo and Donaldson (all RH) can do enough damage assuming Andrus and Blackmon get on base at a decent clip.
*** Note: this was written while Rod was posting ***
Moral of the story - Altuve is worth every penny that he got in FA compared to the rest of these guys.
Rod, which era did these run under? AL 2016? Hopefully, not the Neutral era
And yes, I also know Ramirez isn't really a 2b. But he did have a rating at 2b this year and he was a rather large contract signing in Week 1 so I included him on the squad.
But everyone on both rosters was (or will be) available in FA this year.
And he used up all my bullpen arms. I'm filing a protest with the CO in the morning.
Great question, let me go check quick
I did select the Neutral era
That's going to make a pretty big difference in the results by the way. I can rerun the sim using one of the 2016 ones and report on the changes...
LOL - ok, I used the 2016 NL era and the standings were once again 88-74 in favor of the 2b team. Give me a second to post stats
Kershaw (22-7 2.14 ERA) so maybe a little better
Scherzer was rocked even worse than before (6-16 5.06 ERA)
Miley, Kazmir, Sanchez = still not good (same can be said for Gomez and McGee in the bullpen)
Ramirez = .322/.374/.453 (.314/.368/.437 and .331/.381/.472), 61 doubles, 9 HR, 44 SB
Altuve = .310/.368/.531 (.287/.357/.467 and .335/.381/.606) 42 doubles, 35 HR, 28 SB
Carpenter = .229/.343/.371 (.203/.297/.296 and .265/.403/.475), 39 doubles, 14 HR, 3 SB
Dozier = .246/.327/.478 (.263/.359/.524 and .226/.288/.424), 31 doubles, 33 HR, 10 SB
Cano = .257/.314/.422 (.248/.295/.356 and .271/.340/.515), 29 doubles, 24 HR, 1 SB
Kinsler = .287/.350/.500 (.296/.355/.518 and .275/.344/.477), 35 doubles, 29 HR, 14 SB
Kipnis = .231/.297/.377 (.213/.266/.336 and .257/.339/.434), 39 doubles, 16 HR, 16 SB
and no, that's not a typo on Carpenter's splits. He really did have a higher OBP than Slug% vs LHP
It's interesting that so much of the discussion is on 2016 value. I ran WAY too many simulations. Based on those I fully expect Altuve to run away with the MVP next season. In fact, I'd go so far as to say he'd be worth $20 million. It doesn't take too much to figure out players value next year. We know from Dan Z that DMB weighs the prior seasons at 70%, 20%, and 10%. But we have to expect Kipnis, Dozier, and Altuve regress towards their mean.
Taking into account the aging curve of infiedlers, regression towards their prior production, are all of these 2B really great value in 2017? What might be fun is predictions on what these 2B are worth next year.
Great stuff! For a DMB and Sim rookie like me. To quote the Lizard from The Amazing Spiderman, "You stopped me once, you won't stop me again. I'm getting stronger every day."
I think if I were to change anything (besides giving the Generals a backup OF) would be to change the Generals rotation. It was 40-60 RH/LH split when the typical rotation is 80-20. So I've probably overinflated the stats for the 2b who are stronger against LHP than you would expect to see. Plus if Scherzer isn't going to pull his weight it's Kershaw and 4 guys getting rocked. So some tweaks there might give a better representation of what we're going to see when it matters.
Wow -just seeing this. So interesting. Thanks Rod!