2018 Season => Arbitration => Arbitration Reviewed => Topic started by: scubadan on January 31, 2018, 09:25:52 AM
Title: Kraken Arbitration
Post by: scubadan on January 31, 2018, 09:25:52 AM
This may have been discussed when the rule changes were discussed but I don't remember...what's the difference between the two arbitration weeks? Is it just to give extra time after FA to decide about guys who might be on the bubble?
Regardless of the answer above, the Kraken plan to offer arbitration to both Nick Castellanos and Kyle Hendricks. I believe Castellanos new contract will be for $1M and Hendricks will be for $2.5M. Please let me know if I am wrong.
Dan
Title: Re: Kraken Arbitration
Post by: David Johnson on February 01, 2018, 08:29:25 AM
It's just to give time both before and after free agency.
Title: Re: Kraken Arbitration
Post by: scubadan on February 05, 2018, 02:31:38 PM
Regardless of the answer above, the Kraken plan to offer arbitration to both Nick Castellanos and Kyle Hendricks. I believe Castellanos new contract will be for $1M and Hendricks will be for $2.5M. Please let me know if I am wrong.
I want to walk through this step by step based on the clarifying email we received today:
* Nick Castellanos' 2017 Fangraphs WAR was 1.7 Based on that, his salary for this season would be $1.5M. That's $500k more than my original post.
* Kyle Hendricks' 2017 Fangraphs WAR was was 2.5. Based on that, his salary for this season would be $2M. That's $500k less than my original post.
I guess the most confusing part in the rule book explanation is what determines "WAR statistic from the immediately preceding year". We're in MSB18 which uses 2017 stats. Is the preceding years stats 2017 (last year in real life) or is it 2016 (the preceding year in MSB)?
Title: Re: Kraken Arbitration
Post by: Rum Runners on February 05, 2018, 02:46:31 PM
Dan,
I'm not the C.O., but I think what you are seeing here is mostly the difference from fangraphs to Baseball Reference.
The Arbitration value will be calculated based upon the previous real season statistics as that is what we are using to base our season upon.
Title: Re: Kraken Arbitration
Post by: David Johnson on February 05, 2018, 04:11:36 PM
I want to walk through this step by step based on the clarifying email we received today:
* Nick Castellanos' 2017 Fangraphs WAR was 1.7 Based on that, his salary for this season would be $1.5M. That's $500k more than my original post.
* Kyle Hendricks' 2017 Fangraphs WAR was was 2.5. Based on that, his salary for this season would be $2M. That's $500k less than my original post.
I guess the most confusing part in the rule book explanation is what determines "WAR statistic from the immediately preceding year". We're in MSB18 which uses 2017 stats. Is the preceding years stats 2017 (last year in real life) or is it 2016 (the preceding year in MSB)?
Not surprisingly, I made a mistake in saying no one would go up...
Yes, it is accurate to say that Castellanos would go up $500K for 2018 and Kyle Hendricks would go down by $500K. I assume this makes you more likely to offer arbitration to Hendricks, but please let me know what you'd like to do with Castellanos.
Part of the reason that Fangraphs make more sense is guys like Castellanos. His offensive statistics would seem to indicate much more than a reserve player, yet Baseball Reference's WAR of 0.7 indicates just that. Fangraphs 1.7 is much more indicative of his performance. Other examples are maybe better examples. Marcus Stroman, for example, has a BR WAR that is 1.2 wins above Clayton Kershaw's and 0.3 below Chris Sale's. Something about that doesn't sit right with me. Fangraphs seems much more consistent (Stroman - 3.4, Kershaw - 4.6, Sale - 7.7).
By WAR statistic from the immediately preceding year, I mean real-life year. So it's 2018, we use 2017's WAR. I probably need to clean up a lot of references in the rulebook in that regard. The time-shift (we use the preceding years' statistics for everything) makes writing rules more confusing for everyone.
Title: Re: Kraken Arbitration
Post by: scubadan on February 05, 2018, 04:15:30 PM
Thanks for the clarification David. I'll still offer arbitration to Castellanos. No biggie on the increase for Castellanos; I just wanted to make sure I understood the rule.
Title: Re: Kraken Arbitration
Post by: David Johnson on February 06, 2018, 06:58:13 AM
Granted.
Title: Re: Kraken Arbitration
Post by: Scurvy Dogs on February 06, 2018, 10:02:02 AM
Not surprisingly, I made a mistake in saying no one would go up...
Yes, it is accurate to say that Castellanos would go up $500K for 2018 and Kyle Hendricks would go down by $500K. I assume this makes you more likely to offer arbitration to Hendricks, but please let me know what you'd like to do with Castellanos.
Part of the reason that Fangraphs make more sense is guys like Castellanos. His offensive statistics would seem to indicate much more than a reserve player, yet Baseball Reference's WAR of 0.7 indicates just that. Fangraphs 1.7 is much more indicative of his performance. Other examples are maybe better examples. Marcus Stroman, for example, has a BR WAR that is 1.2 wins above Clayton Kershaw's and 0.3 below Chris Sale's. Something about that doesn't sit right with me. Fangraphs seems much more consistent (Stroman - 3.4, Kershaw - 4.6, Sale - 7.7).
By WAR statistic from the immediately preceding year, I mean real-life year. So it's 2018, we use 2017's WAR. I probably need to clean up a lot of references in the rulebook in that regard. The time-shift (we use the preceding years' statistics for everything) makes writing rules more confusing for everyone.
I want to offer Kershaw arbitration :)
That would save me like $16 million if that was an available option...
Title: Re: Kraken Arbitration
Post by: DataDriven05 on February 09, 2018, 10:29:29 AM
Would it?
It is in addition to, not instead of, right? Thus, Kershaw would be adding to his existing salary, not replacing it with his WAR tier from that season.
In other words if Kyle Hendricks is now 2M and next year his WAR says it's 1.5M raise to offer him arb, then his salary would be 3.5M not lowered to 1.5M.
Title: Re: Kraken Arbitration
Post by: Rum Runners on February 09, 2018, 11:52:07 AM
It is in addition to, not instead of, right? Thus, Kershaw would be adding to his existing salary, not replacing it with his WAR tier from that season.
In other words if Kyle Hendricks is now 2M and next year his WAR says it's 1.5M raise to offer him arb, then his salary would be 3.5M not lowered to 1.5M.
Salt in the wound!
Title: Re: Kraken Arbitration
Post by: David Johnson on February 09, 2018, 12:48:18 PM
Chris' analysis is correct. The only year it gets replaced in its entirety is the first year of arbitration. The only possible opportunity for that to make a difference is this year with any player on a $2M ICE salary. After this year those all go away so year 1 of arbitration will always be an increase from $500K to at least $1M.