thanks to Kyle for pointing out the unexpected ICE benefit/consequence!
Matt Shoemaker re-salaried @$1M w/WAR 0.30
Cody Allen @$1.5M w/1.50
Brad Boxberger @$1M w/0.30, gambling w/Shoemaker savings
Granted.
One thing I wanted to mention is that, by offering arbitration to Shoemaker, his contract value does go down, but so does the term of his contract. He was a $2M/2019 contract. He is now a $1M/2018 contract. Yes, you will be able to get an extra year out of him (since he can be extended in 2019 and again in 2020), but that will cost you a little bit more. Did you realize that?
This would also apply to Betances and I will post in Kyle's thread too.
As an aside for most other GMs, this is not an issue for you. This is only an issue for ICEd players with 2019 contracts. After this year, the issue will go away.
thanks, Dave. I didn't realize that. I understood the mechanics/logic of how it works but didn't deduct a year. I guess I considered the "option" as fixed.
Thinking/typing this through: if I don't act on him now, the $2M contract expires normally after next year & I don't get any benefit other than HTD plus I have to bid to re-sign him for 2020, right? If I arbitrate him now, I lose a fixed salary of $2M next year, but save $1M (free agency's over so it means nothing now or next year) this year. If he bombs, I don't have his $2M liability next year, but if he does well wWAR 3.5, I'll extend him w/o competition & @$2M anyways & we'll see abt the year after that. I figure he'll be <WAR 2.0 at best, so I'll still save this way. Does this look correct? I've had a few drinks w/dinner, so please pardon any glaring errors.
If I've got this right, then I'll extend McHugh to $1.5M as well. Thankfully he's a simple R4.
Yes, if you don't offer arbitration, he is a FA after 2019. You will get the HTD no matter what.
Re: your analysis of 2019 though - arbitration salaries are cumulative. So if you give him arbitration this year at $1M and he has a 3.5 WAR in real life 2018, his arbitration year 2 will cost you the original $1M plus an additional $2M for the 3.5 WAR for a total of $3M in 2019. Add another 3.5 WAR in 2019 and his arbitration salary for DMB year 2020 will be $5M ($1M + $2M + $2M). Finally, you're right. If his WAR next year is <2.0, his salary next year won't be more than $2M ($1M in 2018 plus $1M in 2019).
I've extended McHugh.