Re: Kinsler vs. Dozier/Kipnis Reply #15 – February 02, 2017, 12:22:10 PM Interesting read on everyone's thought patterns. I may be the odd duck here but I rated Kinsler as the best of the three. Perhaps it's my Tigers bias. To tell you how biased that thought process was, I targeted Kinsler ahead of Altuve but that's only be because I had a fair idea how high Altuve was going to go. Sure, Kinsler had a power surge last year that may go away but the same could probably be said of just every 2B last year. I see Dozier and Kinsler as very similar offensively but Kinlser's defense is much better. I do think Kinsler has more risk in a three year contract due to his age and his tendency to have up and down seasonal swings. Perhaps it came down to whether a team was looking to win this season or looking for long term production.I was in the bidding on Kinsler and would have bid him higher but ran out of cap space. Quote Selected
Re: Kinsler vs. Dozier/Kipnis Reply #16 – February 02, 2017, 12:54:02 PM I just threw up in my mouth at the Dozier/Uggla comparison. Quote Selected 2 Likes
Re: Kinsler vs. Dozier/Kipnis Reply #17 – February 02, 2017, 01:01:32 PM While I don't see Uggla myself, I'm more than willing to accept Chris being right on that one if that makes him also right about Kipnis. Sorry Rod! Nomads forever! Quote Selected
Re: Kinsler vs. Dozier/Kipnis Reply #18 – February 02, 2017, 01:37:18 PM Matt - what you said about Dozier and Uggla got me thinking. I agree with you that they are not the same player, don't look the same, Dozier is more athletic. What I should have added when I made that comparison was that you have to remove the 'eye test' for that - hence my squint comment..lol When it comes to DMB, I can't imagine that stuff is factored in. So, yes, if you an I are in a school yard picking teams and it's Dozier and Uggla (at 29-30) sitting there to be picked. I am picking Dozier, based on what I can see, but DMB sees only numbers. So let's take Uggla from 27-29, since Dozier is only 29 now. Dozier (3 yr avg Avg/R/HR/RBI/SB ).249/105/31/82/17Uggla (3 yr avg Avg/R/HR/RBI/SB).249/98/31/90/3 That is pretty damn close.... lolNow for defense, taking dWar and Fielding % from BR's site. Uggla in those three years -1.2/0.7/-0.9 -- 3yr fielding % is .981Dozier in the last 3 years 0.7/0.0/0.8 -- 3 yr fielding % is .986Dozier is better here, but not dramatically. Again, not terribly sophisticated. In this day and age of advanced metrics, most of what I offer is below basic. However, I am just going to grab what I can in 15 min, so here you are. Quote Selected
Re: Kinsler vs. Dozier/Kipnis Reply #19 – February 02, 2017, 02:31:45 PM I hear Rod vomiting again. Totally agree the numbers are eerily similar. More Rod vomiting.I just mentioned athleticism because I think that plays a big part in whether those numbers can be repeated in his 30th and 31st year. Around that time in Ugglas career he hit the wall, splattered, then burned, then blew away, then hit an even harder wall around age 32. I think based on Doziers athleticism he is far more likely to be the Dozier of the last three years than the Uggla of the last three years. Shut the toilet seat Rod. I think you're going to be okay. I'm really fascinated by the differences in our evaluations. We're all looking at the same numbers but our brains definitely spit out some different answers. I found it particularly interesting that while I completely agreed with Chris about Kipnis his ranking of the 4 players was practically the opposite of my list. So interesting. Quote Selected
Re: Kinsler vs. Dozier/Kipnis Reply #20 – February 02, 2017, 02:42:35 PM Quote from: thebuland – on February 02, 2017, 02:31:45 PM I hear Rod vomiting again. Totally agree the numbers are eerily similar. More Rod vomiting.I just mentioned athleticism because I think that plays a big part in whether those numbers can be repeated in his 30th and 31st year. Around that time in Ugglas career he hit the wall, splattered, then burned, then blew away, then hit an even harder wall around age 32. I think based on Doziers athleticism he is far more likely to be the Dozier of the last three years than the Uggla of the last three years. Shut the toilet seat Rod. I think you're going to be okay. I'm really fascinated by the differences in our evaluations. We're all looking at the same numbers but our brains definitely spit out some different answers. I found it particularly interesting that while I completely agreed with Chris about Kipnis his ranking of the 4 players was practically the opposite of my list. So interesting.Thus me starting the thread. I appreciate you all jumping in - it's fascinating to me how players are evaluated from one GM to another. Quote Selected
Re: Kinsler vs. Dozier/Kipnis Reply #21 – February 02, 2017, 08:26:58 PM Quote from: thebuland – on February 02, 2017, 11:29:39 AMTotally spaced on Altuve. What a year for second basemen!You are also forgetting about Robbie Cano Quote Selected
Re: Kinsler vs. Dozier/Kipnis Reply #22 – February 02, 2017, 08:37:56 PM ok. This doesn't settle anything in regards to how each of us value players. But since there was so much debate over these 2b I figured I would run a simulation and see what happens. Typically you would want to do this more than once but I didn't. So take any and all results with a huge grain of salt.Team: 2b foreverRF: Jose RamirezLF: Jose Altuve1b: Matt CarpenterDH: Brian Dozier3b: Robbie CanoSS: Ian Kinsler2b: Jason KipnisCF: Sean RodriguezC: Salvador Perez (I didn't think it was fair to have one of these 2b catch, that could have impacted their batting)b: Russell Martin, Adrian Beltre, Nori Aoki, Adam Jones, JD MartinezSP: Chris Sale, Madison Bumgarner, Yu Darvish, Jon Lester, Corey KluberC: Cam BedrosianRP: Boone Logan, Mauricio Cabrera, Brad Hand, Pedro Strop, Carlos Torres Quote Selected
Re: Kinsler vs. Dozier/Kipnis Reply #23 – February 02, 2017, 08:45:35 PM Team: Washington GeneralsSS: Elvis AndrusCF: Charlie Blackmon3b: Josh DonaldsonLF: Mark TrumboRF: Curtis GrandersonDH: Edwin Encarnacion1b: Brandon Belt2b: Hernan PerezC: Brian McCannb: Sandy Leon, Mike Napoli, Dee Gordon, Freddy Galvis, Todd FrazierSP: Clayton Kershaw, Max Scherzer, Wade Miley, Scott Kazmir, Anibal SanchezC: Zach BrittonRP: Aroldis Chapman, Craig Kimbrel, Jeuryls Familia, Jeanmar Gomez, Jake McGee Quote Selected
Re: Kinsler vs. Dozier/Kipnis Reply #24 – February 02, 2017, 08:50:59 PM I wanted to pick two of the best SP on the market and couple them with some well, cheaper alternatives to round out the rotation for the Generals to get a good sample size for the 2b. So probably a big advantage for Team 2b in rotation. But the Generals bullpen I figured would be more than up to the task, that's 4 lights out closers. Predictions on who had the better record H2H over 162 games before I give you some stats? Quote Selected Last Edit: February 02, 2017, 09:19:02 PM by Scurvy Dogs
Re: Kinsler vs. Dozier/Kipnis Reply #25 – February 02, 2017, 08:52:57 PM Cano too. 9.5MHere's another viewpoint. Mike Petriello has been doing top 10's for positions and here is his ranking of 2bmen. Pretty cool to see him doing big things as he once was in our league. He has Carpenter as a 1b btw.http://m.mlb.com/news/article/213164152/jose-altuve-tops-top-10-second-basemen-in-2017/ Quote Selected
Re: Kinsler vs. Dozier/Kipnis Reply #26 – February 02, 2017, 08:56:47 PM Cool Rod! I'm going to vote for the Generals but I'd guess it's pretty close. Quote Selected
Re: Kinsler vs. Dozier/Kipnis Reply #27 – February 02, 2017, 09:17:08 PM 2b Forever had a record of 88-74 over the Generals.Kershaw did his part (17-9 2.26 ERA) but Scherzer didn't (12-13 4.05 ERA) while Miley, Kazmir, and Sanchez were pretty awful. That great bullpen doesn't do much good if you can't get a lead to protect. I won't bother everyone with all the stats, but here's a breakdown of the 2b (which was kind of the whole point of this exercise). All games were played in the Neutral Park, so no park factors were involved. Also, a lot of this is dependent on where they batted in the lineup and stuff. So if you want to argue with any or all of the lineup or roster constructs - fair game (for example, I didn't realize until afterwards that I didn't have any backup OF for the Generals). You are more than welcome to redo any of my work and tweak it as you see fit. And again, I only ran the sim once. I would expect some level of standard deviation if I ran the sim several times.Ramirez = .289/.338/.394 (.310/.348/.433 and .262/.326/.346 LHP/RHP splits), 51 doubles, 4 HR, 33 SBAltuve = .325/.371/.483 (.301/.351/.438 and .351/.394/.532), 43 doubles, 20 HR, 43 SBCarpenter = .225/.325/.360 (.222/.288/.283 and .229/.370/.469), 31 doubles, 15 HR, 1 SBDozier = .217/.311/.423 (.256/.374/.518 and .176/.236/.320), 20 doubles, 29 HR, 7 SBCano = .266/.328/.433 (.237/.294/.320 and .302/.371/.575), 23 doubles, 22 HR, 0 SBKinsler = .272/.324/.417 (.292/.363/.455 and .247/.274/.371) 22 doubles, 19 HR, 9 SBKipnis = .288/.361/.451 (.264/.322/.395 and .321/.410/.528) 47 doubles, 12 HR, 11 SB Quote Selected
Re: Kinsler vs. Dozier/Kipnis Reply #28 – February 02, 2017, 09:25:09 PM 2B Forever is my vote. I feel like if I were able to control the Generals, and bring that bullpen after the 5th, when Kershaw and Scherzer aren't out there, maybe some magic could happen. That said, I feel like those other 3 are going to get tagged to the point where the bullpen won't matter.The 2B Forever rotation is ridiculous, but 3 of them are LH. I am curious to see if E5, Trumbo and Donaldson (all RH) can do enough damage assuming Andrus and Blackmon get on base at a decent clip. *** Note: this was written while Rod was posting *** Quote Selected Last Edit: February 02, 2017, 09:28:40 PM by DataDriven05
Re: Kinsler vs. Dozier/Kipnis Reply #29 – February 02, 2017, 09:29:11 PM Moral of the story - Altuve is worth every penny that he got in FA compared to the rest of these guys. Quote Selected
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