Re: Kinsler vs. Dozier/Kipnis Reply #30 – February 02, 2017, 09:29:27 PM Rod, which era did these run under? AL 2016? Hopefully, not the Neutral era Quote Selected
Re: Kinsler vs. Dozier/Kipnis Reply #31 – February 02, 2017, 09:35:33 PM And yes, I also know Ramirez isn't really a 2b. But he did have a rating at 2b this year and he was a rather large contract signing in Week 1 so I included him on the squad. But everyone on both rosters was (or will be) available in FA this year. Quote Selected
Re: Kinsler vs. Dozier/Kipnis Reply #32 – February 02, 2017, 09:36:13 PM Quote from: DataDriven05 – on February 02, 2017, 09:25:09 PM2B Forever is my vote. I feel like if I were able to control the Generals, and bring that bullpen after the 5th, when Kershaw and Scherzer aren't out there, maybe some magic could happen. That said, I feel like those other 3 are going to get tagged to the point where the bullpen won't matter.The 2B Forever rotation is ridiculous, but 3 of them are LH. I am curious to see if E5, Trumbo and Donaldson (all RH) can do enough damage assuming Andrus and Blackmon get on base at a decent clip. *** Note: this was written while Rod was posting ***And he used up all my bullpen arms. I'm filing a protest with the CO in the morning. Quote Selected
Re: Kinsler vs. Dozier/Kipnis Reply #33 – February 02, 2017, 09:36:53 PM Quote from: DataDriven05 – on February 02, 2017, 09:29:27 PMRod, which era did these run under? AL 2016? Hopefully, not the Neutral eraGreat question, let me go check quick Quote Selected
Re: Kinsler vs. Dozier/Kipnis Reply #34 – February 02, 2017, 09:37:55 PM Quote from: Scurvy Dogs – on February 02, 2017, 09:36:53 PMQuote from: DataDriven05 – on February 02, 2017, 09:29:27 PMRod, which era did these run under? AL 2016? Hopefully, not the Neutral eraGreat question, let me go check quickI did select the Neutral era Quote Selected
Re: Kinsler vs. Dozier/Kipnis Reply #35 – February 02, 2017, 09:42:40 PM That's going to make a pretty big difference in the results by the way. I can rerun the sim using one of the 2016 ones and report on the changes... Quote Selected
Re: Kinsler vs. Dozier/Kipnis Reply #36 – February 02, 2017, 09:45:20 PM LOL - ok, I used the 2016 NL era and the standings were once again 88-74 in favor of the 2b team. Give me a second to post stats Quote Selected
Re: Kinsler vs. Dozier/Kipnis Reply #37 – February 02, 2017, 09:49:33 PM Kershaw (22-7 2.14 ERA) so maybe a little betterScherzer was rocked even worse than before (6-16 5.06 ERA)Miley, Kazmir, Sanchez = still not good (same can be said for Gomez and McGee in the bullpen) Quote Selected
Re: Kinsler vs. Dozier/Kipnis Reply #38 – February 02, 2017, 09:58:05 PM Ramirez = .322/.374/.453 (.314/.368/.437 and .331/.381/.472), 61 doubles, 9 HR, 44 SBAltuve = .310/.368/.531 (.287/.357/.467 and .335/.381/.606) 42 doubles, 35 HR, 28 SBCarpenter = .229/.343/.371 (.203/.297/.296 and .265/.403/.475), 39 doubles, 14 HR, 3 SBDozier = .246/.327/.478 (.263/.359/.524 and .226/.288/.424), 31 doubles, 33 HR, 10 SBCano = .257/.314/.422 (.248/.295/.356 and .271/.340/.515), 29 doubles, 24 HR, 1 SBKinsler = .287/.350/.500 (.296/.355/.518 and .275/.344/.477), 35 doubles, 29 HR, 14 SBKipnis = .231/.297/.377 (.213/.266/.336 and .257/.339/.434), 39 doubles, 16 HR, 16 SBand no, that's not a typo on Carpenter's splits. He really did have a higher OBP than Slug% vs LHP Quote Selected
Re: Kinsler vs. Dozier/Kipnis Reply #39 – February 02, 2017, 10:33:52 PM It's interesting that so much of the discussion is on 2016 value. I ran WAY too many simulations. Based on those I fully expect Altuve to run away with the MVP next season. In fact, I'd go so far as to say he'd be worth $20 million. It doesn't take too much to figure out players value next year. We know from Dan Z that DMB weighs the prior seasons at 70%, 20%, and 10%. But we have to expect Kipnis, Dozier, and Altuve regress towards their mean. Taking into account the aging curve of infiedlers, regression towards their prior production, are all of these 2B really great value in 2017? What might be fun is predictions on what these 2B are worth next year. Quote Selected 1 Likes
Re: Kinsler vs. Dozier/Kipnis Reply #40 – February 03, 2017, 06:28:23 AM Quote from: dgonser – on February 02, 2017, 10:33:52 PMIt's interesting that so much of the discussion is on 2016 value. I ran WAY too many simulations. Based on those I fully expect Altuve to run away with the MVP next season. In fact, I'd go so far as to say he'd be worth $20 million. It doesn't take too much to figure out players value next year. We know from Dan Z that DMB weighs the prior seasons at 70%, 20%, and 10%. But we have to expect Kipnis, Dozier, and Altuve regress towards their mean. Taking into account the aging curve of infiedlers, regression towards their prior production, are all of these 2B really great value in 2017? What might be fun is predictions on what these 2B are worth next year. Great stuff! For a DMB and Sim rookie like me. To quote the Lizard from The Amazing Spiderman, "You stopped me once, you won't stop me again. I'm getting stronger every day." Quote Selected
Re: Kinsler vs. Dozier/Kipnis Reply #41 – February 03, 2017, 06:40:03 AM I think if I were to change anything (besides giving the Generals a backup OF) would be to change the Generals rotation. It was 40-60 RH/LH split when the typical rotation is 80-20. So I've probably overinflated the stats for the 2b who are stronger against LHP than you would expect to see. Plus if Scherzer isn't going to pull his weight it's Kershaw and 4 guys getting rocked. So some tweaks there might give a better representation of what we're going to see when it matters. Quote Selected
Re: Kinsler vs. Dozier/Kipnis Reply #42 – February 03, 2017, 01:10:27 PM Wow -just seeing this. So interesting. Thanks Rod! Quote Selected
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