Round 10

September 10, 2022, 06:59:22 PM

Welcome to Round 10! Let's get to it...

1) It's only August 15 on the MSB calendar, but already, one team from each league has been mathematically eliminated from winning their league: The Kraken and the Brewers. We switched to a 159-game schedule this year and we've all played 119 so far, meaning there are just 40 games left to play. In the Frick, the Bums' magic number over the Angler Fish is 6. And in the KML, the Winds magic number over the Rougarou and Madmen is 9, but just 8 over the Robots. Remember, magic numbers are any number of wins by the team ahead plus any losses by the team behind. It's quite likely the Angler Fish get eliminated from their dreams of finishing first place in the Frick. And about even that the 3 KML teams mentioned get the axe.
Questions:
a) Will the Angler Fish be eliminated from first place contention after Round 10 is played? (Yes = 2 points, No = 4 points)
b) Will ANY of the 3 teams mentioned in the KML be mathematically eliminated from first place? (Yes or No = 2 points)

2) As much as it pains me to even utter the words, the Bums (8 games up) and Winds (13 games up) have nearly a lock on first place in their leagues. So let's focus on the other contending teams for a sec... The Blues and Landlubbers are tied with the next-best records (72 wins), followed closely by the Miners (71) and Hammers (69). I'm going to ask you to pick the two teams that will be in 2nd place in their leagues (ties will count) and the points will be based on the odds of your selections.
Pick any two of:
the Blues: 1 point
the Landlubbers: 1 point
the Miners: 2 points
the Hammers: 3 points
Wanna pick the Dogs (7 games back of the Blues) or Rum Runners (6 back of the Landlubbers)? Go for it, and get 6 points (each).

3) Around this time of year, I like to look for true statistical mysteries - things that just DON'T match up with the real life numbers. For example, The Hammers' Trea Turner won the batting title last year (.328), but he currently sits 20th in MSB at .284! On the other hand, the Landlubbers' Matt Olson finished the 2021 season with 111 total RBI, good for 6th place. But in MSB, he leads the league with 112 already!

But Turner's bad luck and Olson's good fortune of runners on base have NOTHING on the Sweets' Hunter Renfroe. The man tied for 31st in home runs with a total of 31 bombs last year in real life, but sits in 2nd place in MSB with 40 jacks already - with 40 games to play!!! Yes, the Sweets play their home games at Great American Bandbox... er... Ballpark, but still! That's nuts. He's not likely to catch Vlad Jr (47), so let's just guess how many jacks Renfroe will hit in Round 10. Keep in mind he's at 90% playing time, but I don't see a reason why Coy would bench him just yet. Nail it and you get 3 points. One off, and you get 1 point.

4) Matchups: Pick the underdog (based on current W/L records) and get 3 points if they win the series. Otherwise, pick the favorite and get 1 point:
August 17-19: Rum Runners (3 points) visit the Landlubbers (1 point)
August 20-22: Miners (3 points) host the Blues (1 point) - a battle for 2nd place!
August 20-22: Landlubbers (3 points) @ Winds (1 point)
August 23-25: Rum Runners (3 points) @ Garden Hammers (2 points) - a battle for 3rd place!

5) Let's make two of the matchups this week part of a separate question from the regular matchups question... Please know that I mean no offense to Dave or Dan. But the odds of either of you sweeping two dominating 1st-place teams is quite slim.
Matchup #1: The Bums visit the nearly eliminated Angler Fish August 20-22. Question: How many games will the Angler Fish win?
0-1 wins = 2 points
2 wins = 4 points
3 wins (sweep) = 6 points
Matchup #2: The Winds visit the rebuilding Kraken August 23-25. Question: How many games will the Kraken win?
0-1 wins = 2 points
2 wins = 5 points
3 wins (sweep) = 10 points

Re: Round 10

Reply #1 – September 10, 2022, 07:52:56 PM

1a) Yes, b) Yes
2) Blues, Landlubbers
3) 4
4) Rum Runners, Blues, Winds, Hammers
5) Angler Fish: 2 wins, Kraken 1 win

Re: Round 10

Reply #2 – September 11, 2022, 09:07:24 AM

Robots predict:
1a - Yes
1b - Yes
2 - Blues, Miners
3 - 5
4 - Rumrunners, Miners, Landlubbers, Rumrunners
5 - Anglerfish 1 win
Kraken 1 win

Re: Round 10

Reply #3 – September 11, 2022, 11:03:48 AM

1a) Yes b) Yes
2 Blues and Miners
3   3
4   Rum,   Blues,   Winds GHammers
5   0-1 and 0-1

Re: Round 10

Reply #4 – September 11, 2022, 07:06:06 PM

1) yes, no
2) Blues, Lubbers
3) 4
4) Lubbers, Miners (tough call--Blues significantly better at home, Miners away), Winds, Hammers
5) 0-1, 0-1

Re: Round 10

Reply #5 – September 11, 2022, 08:09:45 PM

1) Yes, Yes
2) Miners, Landlubbers
3) 4
4) Rum Runners, Miners, Landlubbers, Rum Runners
5) 0-1, 0-1

Re: Round 10

Reply #6 – September 12, 2022, 05:40:16 AM

1a. No
1b. No
2. Miners and Landlubbers
3. 5 HR
4. Landlubbers, Miners, Landlubbers, Rum Runners
5. Anglerfish get 2 wins, Kraken get 2 wins

Re: Round 10

Reply #7 – September 12, 2022, 05:43:11 AM

1)
a) Yes
b) No

2)
the Miners: 2 points
the Hammers: 3 points

3) Five (5)

4)
Landlubbers
Blues
Landlubbers
Rum Runners

5)
Matchup #1: The Bums visit the nearly eliminated Angler Fish August 20-22. Question: How many games will the Angler Fish win?
0-1 wins = 2 points

Matchup #2: The Winds visit the rebuilding Kraken August 23-25. Question: How many games will the Kraken win?
2 wins = 5 points

Re: Round 10

Reply #8 – September 12, 2022, 08:07:37 AM

1) Yes, Yes
2) Miners, Blues
3) 6
4) Rum Runners, Blues, Landlubbers, Garden Hammers
5) 0-1, 2

Re: Round 10

Reply #9 – September 12, 2022, 04:00:40 PM

1a) Yes, b) Yes
2) Blues, Landlubbers
3) 4
4) Landlubbers, Miners, Winds, Rum Runners
5) Angler Fish: 0-1 wins, Kraken 0-1 win

Re: Round 10

Reply #10 – September 17, 2022, 04:30:54 PM

1)
a) Yes
b) Yes

2)
Landlubbers
Miners

3) 44 homers

4) Matchups: Pick the underdog (based on current W/L records) and get 3 points if they win the series. Otherwise, pick the favorite and get 1 point:
Rum Runners
Miners
Winds
Garden Hammers

5)
Matchup #1: How many games will the Angler Fish win? 0-1 wins = 2 points
Matchup #2: Question: How many games will the Kraken win? 0-1 wins = 2 points

Re: Round 10

Reply #11 – September 17, 2022, 04:35:46 PM

GiG closed.