Re: CUTTHROATS - Dallas Keuchel - SP - $9.5M/2020 Reply #15 – February 14, 2018, 01:09:34 PM Quote from: monsooner – on February 14, 2018, 01:05:42 PMThis is such an interesting signing! I mean, I know Dallas had only 145 IPs in 2017, but that's nothing a September call-up can't fill. Yet a quite inconsistent LEFTY (Gio) and a newbie LEFTY (Wood) went for higher in my experience, lefties don't fair in sim on a consistent basis). Wood certainly is young enough to see a climbing trend (and I believe the sky's the limit for him), but Gio is just a head-scratcher that he went for so much higher than DK.Agree about Keuchel. As for Wood, I would worry about injuries from him, as his career has seemed a bit fragile. However, I'm shocked that Gio has gone for more. Quote Selected
Re: CUTTHROATS - Dallas Keuchel - SP - $9.5M/2020 Reply #16 – February 14, 2018, 01:37:38 PM Thanks for saying something. I was worried I missed something about his foot injury. I looked at this signing as a 2019 and 2020 value based on IP last year, but expected a few more bids.That said, I'm afraid a lot of teams are going to find they haven't paid enough attention to usability later in the season. Maybe the 3/4 of a season was the biggest impact to value. Quote Selected
Re: CUTTHROATS - Dallas Keuchel - SP - $9.5M/2020 Reply #17 – February 14, 2018, 05:13:14 PM From the Nomads perspective, its more about circumstance than preference. We had the lead bid on Verlander when Keuchel closed. Later we were outbid. Verlander went higher than I was comfortable so I put out a bid on Gio who has yet to close. More on Gio vs Kuechel if/when he closes. Quote Selected
Re: CUTTHROATS - Dallas Keuchel - SP - $9.5M/2020 Reply #18 – February 14, 2018, 08:54:35 PM Quote from: thebuland – on February 14, 2018, 05:13:14 PMFrom the Nomads perspective, its more about circumstance than preference. We had the lead bid on Verlander when Keuchel closed. Later we were outbid. Verlander went higher than I was comfortable so I put out a bid on Gio who has yet to close. More on Gio vs Kuechel if/when he closes.It's these kinds of scenarios that always make me wonder if we could ever pull off good rules for some sort of blind bidding for X number of players in Free Agency some day. Because honestly, in the real world, NOBODY would advocate that Verlander, Gio, and Wood should receive more annual salary than DK today, right now. Money tied up and the assumption that DK would go for more before Wood closed were the culprits here. Had I had my druthers about me, I'd have put in a $10M bid on DK before the bell. But alas, my eggs were in another basket as well. I don't really know how blind bidding would look. Early ideas in my head involve something like this: Before regular FA bidding week one, we put the top 2 or 3 players at each and every position, and maybe the top 4 SPs on the board. The CO could use any number of factors to determine the "top players," like OPS + defensive ratings. Or just use WAR. Whatever. Then, certain members of the CO and/or trusted members of the league voluntarily "opt out" on bidding for any given position (because they don't need or want that player). Those CO's or members receive the emails from the league on that player. Winners announced the next day.I dunno. Seems like it'd be a fun new wrinkle. Then again, maybe it's just a big headache. Quote Selected Last Edit: February 14, 2018, 08:56:16 PM by monsooner
Re: CUTTHROATS - Dallas Keuchel - SP - $9.5M/2020 Reply #19 – February 14, 2018, 09:41:56 PM Blind bidding makes me very nervous. I just don't like having zero feedback. In real life some feedback to base your assesment on. You have other contracts that might be signed. You have agent input (though most of it is probably bullshit). Blindly guessing what the next guy is going to pay just doesn't sit right. I would suggest, if you go with a blind bidding process as you suggest, that there be two sets of blind bids. One that narrows it down to top three or all players within a certain percentage of the high bid. The high bid is revealed (Feedback). Then have another set of blind bids which decide who wins. Might be worth looking at.As far as the difference between Keuchel and Gio, I am not sure it's as significant as you make it sound. I'm not arguing that Keuchel isn't the better pitcher, but you spoke of consistency and both players have been pretty consistent. They both are left handed. They both struggled somewhat in 2016 though Gio still managed a 2.9 WAR while Keuchel had a 2.7 WAR according to Fangraphs. They both have been limited in innings the past few years though Gio gives you a full year and with our new Playing Time Rules that is a plus for Gio. Keuchel seems to have the potential for the better year and has the highest WAR of the two though Gio's best year comes close. Their career numbers are pretty similar though Keuchels are a little better. Keuchel has the age advantage being 2 years younger than Gio (30 to 32). Finally, looking back on how they have simmed they both have done pretty well. In Mutiny 2015 they both were very strong. Mutiny 2016 Kuechel clearly had the better year but Gio had a pretty good year. Mutiny 2017 was not kind to either player as real life 2016 were poor years for both.Again, I'm not making the argument Gio is better than Keuchel. My personal preference would have been Keuchel. I just think they are a lot closer than most think. Quote Selected
Re: CUTTHROATS - Dallas Keuchel - SP - $9.5M/2020 Reply #20 – February 15, 2018, 04:55:11 AM Quote from: monsooner – on February 14, 2018, 08:54:35 PMIt's these kinds of scenarios that always make me wonder if we could ever pull off good rules for some sort of blind bidding for X number of players in Free Agency some day. Because honestly, in the real world, NOBODY would advocate that Verlander, Gio, and Wood should receive more annual salary than DK today, right now. Money tied up and the assumption that DK would go for more before Wood closed were the culprits here.I don't really know how blind bidding would look. Early ideas in my head involve something like this: Before regular FA bidding week one, we put the top 2 or 3 players at each and every position, and maybe the top 4 SPs on the board. The CO could use any number of factors to determine the "top players," like OPS + defensive ratings. Or just use WAR. Whatever. Then, certain members of the CO and/or trusted members of the league voluntarily "opt out" on bidding for any given position (because they don't need or want that player). Those CO's or members receive the emails from the league on that player. Winners announced the next day.I dunno. Seems like it'd be a fun new wrinkle. Then again, maybe it's just a big headache.Another league I'm in does have a system like this of sorts. Here is an abbreviated version, hitters and pitchers alternate days. You email the commissioner the total salary and years with a limit of four. The top two bids are revealed and team. After a set number of days and no bids, the player is won. Total salary wins regardless of number of years.This is abbreviated and from memory that is a year old since we haven't started free agency as of yet. I would see this as more work on the CO's. Quote Selected
Re: CUTTHROATS - Dallas Keuchel - SP - $9.5M/2020 Reply #21 – February 15, 2018, 05:59:32 AM I'll add this for things to discuss next offseason. I understand the merits of the argument, but I'd have to really put some thoughts into how the math and overall process would work before it would greenlighted.Good discussion though Quote Selected
Re: CUTTHROATS - Dallas Keuchel - SP - $9.5M/2020 Reply #22 – February 15, 2018, 06:56:48 AM To Matt's ideas: The only problem I see with getting feedback in the way you'd propose is that some people could rig the system with false initial bidding, just to drive the price up on others. For example, if I see that my two top rivals in my division have ZERO shortstops going into free agency, what's to stop me from placing an initial bid on the best shortstops, then NOT bid on the player the next time around?And Rod, it's cool it'll go to the off season discussions thread for the CO, but please note I'm not necessarily advocating for it. It seems like a lot of work for the CO the more I think about it. Quote Selected
Re: CUTTHROATS - Dallas Keuchel - SP - $9.5M/2020 Reply #23 – February 15, 2018, 07:22:37 AM Kyle - completely understand. My gut reaction is I wouldn’t be in favor of it either. But it’s worth discussing to see if it can improve the league. Quote Selected
Re: CUTTHROATS - Dallas Keuchel - SP - $9.5M/2020 Reply #24 – February 15, 2018, 07:33:36 AM If we can move these last few comments about a refined bidding process to a new forum topic, I'll try to track down the email with description my my other league that I referenced. We wouldn't have to mirror that system, but could use as a starting point. Quote Selected
Re: CUTTHROATS - Dallas Keuchel - SP - $9.5M/2020 Reply #25 – February 15, 2018, 07:39:09 AM Kyle, I think there are ways to work around that issue. It will be an interesting discussion for the offseason. I think I am in the same boat with most of you that while there are a few frustrating situations that arise from time to time in our current system, overall it works very well and creates excitement and intrigue for the time of year most of us geek out for.In an ideal world, we hire a "dungeon master" type person. "The Agent" could negotiate with each team. It's private but there is feedback. That would be pretty cool. I keep reading about "bots" that negotiate prices with your cable company or something like that and have wondered if it would be possible to have a "bot" negotiate with us. Way beyond my technical know how or abilities but in my low tech brain it seems possible. Quote Selected 2 Likes
Re: CUTTHROATS - Dallas Keuchel - SP - $9.5M/2020 Reply #26 – February 15, 2018, 08:50:44 AM Quote from: thebuland – on February 15, 2018, 07:39:09 AMIn an ideal world, we hire a "dungeon master" type person. "The Agent" could negotiate with each team. It's private but there is feedback. That would be pretty cool. I keep reading about "bots" that negotiate prices with your cable company or something like that and have wondered if it would be possible to have a "bot" negotiate with us. Way beyond my technical know how or abilities but in my low tech brain it seems possible.I guess in my mind that's how I've always envisioned the message board...as the agent. Sure, it's public but it serves the same purpose letting me know that someone has bid higher for the services of a player I am pursuing. It's just more public in the sense that I know who is making the bids. But in real life how are we to know if an agent does or doesn't tell Team X that Team Y over bid them. Quote Selected
Re: CUTTHROATS - Dallas Keuchel - SP - $9.5M/2020 Reply #27 – February 15, 2018, 08:57:49 AM I opened a thread in the Captains Quarters to continue the discussion there. That way it stays open as this thread on Keuchel will be moved once we start Week 2. Quote Selected
Re: CUTTHROATS - Dallas Keuchel - SP - $9.5M/2020 Reply #28 – February 15, 2018, 09:25:42 AM back to the original comment .. I will for sure be kicking myself in the next few weeks over this signing. Quote Selected
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