Been doing some simulations...

Topic: Been doing some simulations... (Read 8373 times) previous topic - next topic

Been doing some simulations...

February 22, 2017, 06:22:00 PM

Anybody else been doing any sims yet? I know it's early, but I can't help myself. Doesn't hurt that I'm getting over a fever and took a sick day today... Gee, what should I do all day? I know! SIMS!

Anyway, get ready for some parity in the Mutiny! Holy cow. I won't tell you which two teams have a great chance at meeting in the World series this year, but I will tell you that about 12 out of the other 14 teams have a legit shot at making the playoffs. I've run about 10 sims today. Sometimes my boys win 95 games, sometimes they win 78. I'm a little freaked out by that, but let's not get derailed...

Back to the two teams I mentioned. Yes, there are a lot of teams in the mix, but two teams are winning over 100 games in every full year simulation, while others don't come close to an average of 91 or 92. Of course anything can happen once the playoffs start, but lets just say I know which two teams I'd vote for to meet already, here on February 22. And it ain't the Asterisks, I'm sorry to say.

Re: Been doing some simulations...

Reply #1 – February 22, 2017, 08:54:11 PM

The Cutthroats are a very impressive team. No depth, but the starting lineup is very impressive.

Re: Been doing some simulations...

Reply #2 – February 23, 2017, 04:17:30 AM

Good stuff Kyle! I haven't "tooled" around with any sims in a few weeks. I might take a peek again with more completed rosters. I'll be interested to see if I have the same results that you came up with.

Re: Been doing some simulations...

Reply #3 – February 23, 2017, 06:45:49 AM

Quote from: monsooner – on February 22, 2017, 06:22:00 PM

Of course anything can happen once the playoffs start, but lets just say I know which two teams I'd vote for to meet already (in the World Series).

Do the team names start with River and Ankeny? That's what I see in my sims.

Re: Been doing some simulations...

Reply #4 – February 23, 2017, 09:28:31 AM

Quote from: scubadan – on February 23, 2017, 06:45:49 AM

Quote from: monsooner – on February 22, 2017, 06:22:00 PM
Of course anything can happen once the playoffs start, but lets just say I know which two teams I'd vote for to meet already (in the World Series).
Do the team names start with River and Ankeny? That's what I see in my sims.

You know, I ran 3 more sims after I wrote this post last night before I went to bed, and the ACLs won more than 98 games each time. The other 10 or so I ran earlier in the day had them winning the division most of the time (with the Kraken sometimes topping them) but they weren't topping 95 wins regularly. It was the Dogs and Cutties that were regularly hitting triple digits.

It'll be that much more interesting when GMs turn in their opening day rosters. Realizing that simming is a crap-shoot for the most part, its' still interesting to see where teams are as far as how the DMB program would run them in late February.

Re: Been doing some simulations...

Reply #5 – February 23, 2017, 11:24:55 AM

Please take any sims with a grain on salt at this point. Until everyone has submitted an MP the sims are massively unreliable.

Re: Been doing some simulations...

Reply #6 – February 23, 2017, 11:34:55 AM

Having said that, there have been a few teams that have been consistently at the top of the standings of my sims too

Re: Been doing some simulations...

Reply #7 – February 23, 2017, 06:16:28 PM

Quote from: Scurvy Dogs – on February 23, 2017, 11:24:55 AM

Please take any sims with a grain on salt at this point. Until everyone has submitted an MP the sims are massively unreliable.

Oh, absolutely. But interestingly enough, everybody always says they're unreliable, but year after year, they end up being pretty spot on when it comes to the top 3-4 teams. I'd be willing to lay down a gentleman's bet that the Cutties, ACLs, and Dogs all win their divisions right here, right now. I'm not saying another team from their division can't beat them in the playoffs, but I bet they end the season with the best records. The Nomads - if I had to guess - could out perform them all, but so far they're not showing as well. And my Asterisks, heck, I DO have my lineups set pretty much for the entire season, and I'm only averaging 88-92 wins. I have a bad feeling about that...

Re: Been doing some simulations...

Reply #8 – February 23, 2017, 08:30:21 PM

Quote from: scubadan – on February 23, 2017, 06:45:49 AM

Do the team names start with River and Ankeny? That's what I see in my sims.

Please do not talk that way about the ACLs. Remember, we have guys like Bartolo Colon and Steven Wright headlining our pitching staff and Ryan Schimpf and Steve Pearce are going to be getting regular playing time. Actually, I like my team in general, but I feel like I have a lot of duct tape holding it together and I can see them going south very easily.

Re: Been doing some simulations...

Reply #9 – February 23, 2017, 08:33:14 PM

Quote from: Scurvy Dogs – on February 23, 2017, 11:24:55 AM

Please take any sims with a grain on salt at this point. Until everyone has submitted an MP the sims are massively unreliable.

For some teams, definitely. It doesn't change the outcome of the Cutthroats, Dogs or ACL's, they will be at 95-105 wins, but for a team like mine, it makes a difference. Mainly because without an MP, DMB does a time based thing with it's usage and was giving starts to guys on my team that won't see the 25 man roster this year, or at least not start. I had over 50 starts on average from guys like Miller, Velasquez and Nova. It makes a difference. Also, curiously, DMB decided to not use 3 out of my 4 best relievers. Left as-is, Oh never got more than 15-20 innings, but would give guys like Chris Hatcher and Shane Greene close to 100% usage. This was over 10 sims. Even if I had DMB create MP's for all teams, which I did for 5 additional sims, the results (usage) was not close to how I would plan out my team.

Kyle I will send you the MP I used, if you run any additional sims, use it, and see if you see a difference, too.

Re: Been doing some simulations...

Reply #10 – February 23, 2017, 10:09:34 PM

Quote from: DataDriven05 – on February 23, 2017, 08:33:14 PM

Quote from: Scurvy Dogs – on February 23, 2017, 11:24:55 AM
Please take any sims with a grain on salt at this point. Until everyone has submitted an MP the sims are massively unreliable.

For some teams, definitely. It doesn't change the outcome of the Cutthroats, Dogs or ACL's, they will be at 95-105 wins, but for a team like mine, it makes a difference. Mainly because without an MP, DMB does a time based thing with it's usage and was giving starts to guys on my team that won't see the 25 man roster this year, or at least not start. I had over 50 starts on average from guys like Miller, Velasquez and Nova. It makes a difference. Also, curiously, DMB decided to not use 3 out of my 4 best relievers. Left as-is, Oh never got more than 15-20 innings, but would give guys like Chris Hatcher and Shane Greene close to 100% usage. This was over 10 sims. Even if I had DMB create MP's for all teams, which I did for 5 additional sims, the results (usage) was not close to how I would plan out my team.

Kyle I will send you the MP I used, if you run any additional sims, use it, and see if you see a difference, too.

Absolutely, send it on. I was wondering about the Cache Hogs. Like the Nomads, I figured you'd be square in the mix. The Cutties have a great looking core, but so do the Hogs. Should be a fun race to watch.

Re: Been doing some simulations...

Reply #11 – February 24, 2017, 12:03:23 PM

I've run some (<20) w/only my MP* to see where to put the high OBP guys. Takeaways: 1. my division often runs weak--one clear leader, but several times all four teams hovered at .500 or below. 2. no matter what I do, my roster management results in Carpenter hitting .230. 3. overall team WHIP etc. look good, but need to figure out who pitches the 7th. 4. team still can't put runs on the board.

*I'm gonna try running w/o an MP to see how much better the team does randomly w/no mgr

Re: Been doing some simulations...

Reply #12 – February 24, 2017, 05:27:56 PM

Generally when I Sim before the season I do MP's for each team based on my best guesses. If I'm really particularly nerdy (and have some extra time on my hand which usually coincides with the annual nasty cold that comes from the pre-school germ factory) I will even stop the sims a couple times during the season and make some playing time limit changes. I've definitely missed some things but it usually gives me a fairly accurate representation of how the rosters will work out which gives a pretty good output. But even after all that the results often fluctuate so much I never feel really comfortable about picking winners. I use those results to alter lineups. In fact last year Karns simmed so poorly I decided to go with a rookie which worked out okay for his limited innings and then led making a huge trade.

Based on the voting last year for who would win my division I don't think sim's gave an accurate read of the Nomads. And of course they didn't predict key trades that were made.

Don't sleep on the Nomads. I still have a few move to make.