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Topic: 2026 Rule Changes (Read 223 times) previous topic - next topic

Re: 2026 Rule Changes

Reply #15
hmm, this is right. The averages are to simplistic. The variation is so high the 10 games doesn't cover it (I incorrectly thought that gave us enough flexibility).

Obviously having 100% across the board means you cannot get to 100% playing time before going over on one of the splits. This spreadsheet shows the 6.2% buffer from 152 games is not enough to cover the player-to-player variation.

I so appreciate this work! If there is an i-told-you-so moment you will enjoy pointing to this!
Craig
Ann Arbor Landlubbers

Re: 2026 Rule Changes

Reply #16
@profjason - you’ve given me a lot to think about here.

In my opinion the comment that you made that jumps out at me the most is that unless you are very much on top of your usage it’s plausible and in fact probable that no one will be able to get to 100% usage without exceeding at least one of the their splits.

Perhaps as you suggested 105% makes sense? Accomplishes what the intention of the rule change was trying to do, but doesn’t kneecap everyone from getting to 100% overall usage either.

Schwarber in 2024 doesn’t exceed PTL with those rules, even with the massive and unexplained increase in usage vs RHP.

I can get behind this…

And for the record - LOVE the debate and discussion. It’s why I love this league…
Rod
Scurvy Dogs

 

Re: 2026 Rule Changes

Reply #17
hmm, this is right. The averages are to simplistic. The variation is so high the 10 games doesn't cover it (I incorrectly thought that gave us enough flexibility).

Obviously having 100% across the board means you cannot get to 100% playing time before going over on one of the splits. This spreadsheet shows the 6.2% buffer from 152 games is not enough to cover the player-to-player variation.

I so appreciate this work! If there is an i-told-you-so moment you will enjoy pointing to this!

Agreed
Rod
Scurvy Dogs

Re: 2026 Rule Changes

Reply #18
For the record - I posted my original comment BEFORE I read Craig’s reply. Good to know we are all on the same page here regarding the fact that it’s fairly impossible to achieve 100% overall usage with 100% splits as well.
Rod
Scurvy Dogs

Re: 2026 Rule Changes

Reply #19
Perhaps as you suggested 105% makes sense? Accomplishes what the intention of the rule change was trying to do, but doesn’t kneecap everyone from getting to 100% overall usage either.

Schwarber in 2024 doesn’t exceed PTL with those rules, even with the massive and unexplained increase in usage vs RHP.

I can get behind this…

And for the record - LOVE the debate and discussion. It’s why I love this league…

Personally, I would rather see us remain at 110%, since I think that gives the full-time players the best chance of staying full-time. However, if the commissioners feel that 110% is too high, then 105% is better than 100%. My initial reaction was to two items. The first is that there is almost no way to reach 100% overall playing time without exceeding 100% on one hand or the other. My other reason was that 110% was a good target, especially if there is an overall limit of 100%. I'm not sure if I'm seeing an argument against 110% beyond the fact that it might let a GM gain a few games by using a player a bit more against the player's preferred handedness. I can understand the realism argument, but in real life, I don't think Dave Roberts is thinking about he might not be able to use Ohtani against some RHP because he might run out of plate appearances against them. :)

As for Schwarber, I think his imbalance comes from a few things. I believe the Phillies lead off with Schwarber and then have Harper hit 3rd. If a team uses an opener against the Phillies, I'm guessing they are always using a LHP, to try to neutralize Schwarber and Harper. Moreover, I'm guessing that teams also will bring in LHRP to face Schwarber later in the game. Before the 2024 season, Schwarber was a totally different hitter against LHP, although that has changed as he's become very balanced in production against LHP and RHP. But I think these might be some of the reasons that Schwarber is seeing a ton of lefties. In Mutiny, we aren't using openers and I don't know if teams are putting in a LHRP every time Schwarber comes up to bat.

I'm glad we are having this conversation, and I have to admit that it was interesting to take this deep dive into the numbers.
Jason
Ankeny ACLs

"I'm pissed off now, Jobu. Look, I go to you. I stick up for you. You no help me now. I say 'F#@& you Jobu', I do it myself."
-Pedro Cerrano, Major League

Re: 2026 Rule Changes

Reply #20
If we're going to move it to 105 or 110, I suggest 110. It's so easy to do the math. And it makes the Schwarber-type player not have to be so tight.
Kyle - 2008, 2015, 2019 MSB Champion

Re: 2026 Rule Changes

Reply #21
So after a lot of discussion we've decided to NOT implement this change. Split usage will stay at 110% for this upcoming season.

Thanks to everyone for the feedback.
Rod
Scurvy Dogs

Re: 2026 Rule Changes

Reply #22
Thank you CO. I know you guys consider every suggestion and come to well thought out rule changes each year which has to be a ton of work. Other leagues have votes for every change which sounds good but leads to so many fights and being upset when you lose. I like the system of just accepting the rules and adjusting. However, when a GM like Jason puts in that much great work and the CO has the humility to adjust the system it gives confidence in that system. Jason has set the standard if anyone thinks the CO is now opening this up for discussion! Well done everyone. 
Craig
Ann Arbor Landlubbers

Re: 2026 Rule Changes

Reply #23
JP is a trouble-making Commie!!!!
Mike
Santa Ana Sea Wolves
MSB Champ  2024
An analog soul in a digital world

Re: 2026 Rule Changes

Reply #24

Yes, that's me. :) Power to the people! Power to the workers!
Jason
Ankeny ACLs

"I'm pissed off now, Jobu. Look, I go to you. I stick up for you. You no help me now. I say 'F#@& you Jobu', I do it myself."
-Pedro Cerrano, Major League

Re: 2026 Rule Changes

Reply #25
As you probably know, H Rap Brown just passed last month. 
Mike
Santa Ana Sea Wolves
MSB Champ  2024
An analog soul in a digital world